*Kennesaw State vs Xavier(-12.5) O/U 153.5
It is not totally inconceivable to think the Owls can put up a fight in this 3/14 matchup. Xavier has an atrocious perimeter defense(281st in opponent 3pt FG%), while Kennesaw State knocks down their outside shots at a Top 50 rate in CBB. For all that Xavier does well offensively, they do turn the ball over nearly 12.5 times per game.
With that said, I have a hard time seeing the Owls being able to hold their own against a Xavier offense that’s knocking down nearly 40% of their outside shots and also thrives around the rim. Kennesaw State turns the ball over 12 times per game themselves.
I wouldn’t lay it here, but taking a shot with KenPom’s 3rd luckiest team that’s been off my radar wasn’t very appealing.
*Pittsburgh vs Iowa State(-4.5) O/U 131.5
Pittsburgh is fresh off a First Four victory just a few days ago and returns to the site of last week’s ACC Tournament in Greensboro. I trust the Panthers in this matchup regardless, but I think it’s an added bonus that their offense just passed the test of facing an elite Mississippi State defense.
Iowa State’s pressure style will take a lot of stale offenses out of games; the Cyclones force the 9th most turnovers per game in the country. That said, ball security is one of Pitt’s biggest strengths, as they rank Top 50 in turnovers/game. I’ve said for a while that Iowa State’s on-ball capabilities are quite overrated; this is a group that is 158th or worse in both opponent 2pt and 3pt FG%. Pitt is very capable of finishing around the rim, but Jeff Capel’s squad hangs their hat on the 3-ball, and for good reason(over 36% on the season).
Iowa State’s offense is incredibly mediocre; they play an ugly Half Court style and lack of aggressiveness from the outside. Teams can win this way, but it’s going to be hard to pull away with this style if you rank just 165th in 2-point FG% and 246th in turnovers/game. Pitt actually has a good 2-point defense but will allow good backcourts to have their way. Thankfully, I’m not too worried about Iowa State’s ability to take advantage.
There is another glaring disparity in this matchup that makes this a full game play. Iowa State gets to the Foul Line at a bottom 60 rate in the country but sends their opponents to the line at a Top 50 rate. From there, Pitt holds a MASSIVE 8.3% edge at the charity stripe. Free throw shooting always matters in tightly contested games, and it swings heavily in our direction with this play. Pitt +4.5 is my free play for today!
*Drake vs Miami(-2) O/U 146.5
There are certain aspects of this Miami team I really like(all offensively), but this “rat line” is more than warranted. Miami’s defense will assuredly be the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, and Drake has all the makings of a team ready to take advantage.
Drake is a balanced offense that can beat you in multiple ways. They shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc(32nd in CBB), can beat you closer to the rim, but perhaps most importantly, they turn the ball over less than 10 times per game. If you had to pick a strength with the ‘Canes on this end of the floor, it’d be their perimeter defense, but even then, they don’t rank in the Top 145 in either 3-point defense or turnovers forced per game. The ‘Canes are atrocious in the paint, allowing opponents to shoot 51.8% from 2-point on the season(261st).
Miami is a complete offense that lacks any weaknesses, but this Bulldogs attack they match up with is stiffer than what they’ve become accustomed to playing in the ACC. Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in America and won’t allow Miami to attack the glass. As far as on-ball capabilities, the Bulldogs rank 34th in 3-point defense and 63rd in 2-point defense. Miami has not been at full strength down the stretch run of the season, and I don’t think it’s inconceivable to think this group is off a step early in this game.
I would need Drake to be more disruptive defensively for me to trust them to get stops down the stretch of this game. With that said, the oddsmakers know what they’re doing with this line.
*Kent State vs Indiana(-4.5) O/U 140.5
It should be noteworthy that Indiana is only a slight favorite here in this 4/13 matchup. You could argue that Kent State brings the better defense into Albany tonight, and Indiana has had a jekyll-and-hyde ending to their season.
The Golden Flashes defend the outside shot at the 28th best rate in America and also force turnovers at a Top 20 rate. If Kent State can force this game into the hands of the Hoosiers’ perimeter players like Penn State did, I think they’ll have achieved what they wanted to. While Kent State is still good on the interior, they’ll have the misfortune of facing one of CBB’s finest players tonight in Trayce Jackson-Davis. Indiana has done a good job of not settling for outside shots this year and playing through TJD, and ultimately, I think this commitment to efficiency pays off tonight.
I’d be more interested in backing Kent State if they weren’t so average offensively. The Golden Flashes are more efficient on the interior, so I don’t understand why they attempt 3’s at a Top 100 rate when they make just 33.5% of these. Indiana is not a very disruptive defense, but their on-ball capabilities are still more than good enough to shut down Kent State in this matchup.
I think this line is about right.
