*Northern Kentucky vs Houston(-18.5) O/U 122
The big storyline around Houston at the moment is the status of star G Marcus Sasser. That injury will surely play a large role in how you view Houston down the stretch of the tournament, but I find it pretty meaningless in this particular matchup. The Cougars are notorious for dominating inferior competition, and they very well may have drawn the easiest 16 seed. NKU might be power-rated higher than the other 16 seeds, but their weaknesses bode horribly in this particular matchup.
You simply have to match Houston’s physicality on the boards if you want to hang with them. Well… Northern Kentucky ranks 315th in defensive rebounding %. I personally believe Houston should operate more as a 2pt offense and shy away from the 3, but this is a particular matchup where their tendency to shoot from deep will serve them well given NKU ranks 319th in opponent 3pt FG%. NKU will take advantage of sloppy teams, but this Houston team thrives in the halfcourt and turns the ball over just 9.5 times per game(13th in CBB).
It goes without saying, but it’s safe to assume an offense that ranks 283rd in 2pt FG% and is mediocre on the outside is going to struggle mightily to finish possessions against perhaps the best on-ball defense in the country.
I’d be shocked if the Cougars don’t win this game by 20+, though the low-possession nature of these teams is worth considering if you’re going to lay that big of a number.
*Iowa vs Auburn(-1.5) O/U 151.5
As is the case in most Iowa games, the Hawkeyes will have the best and worst unit on the floor. The Hawkeyes hold the 3rd best assist/turnover ratio in CBB, and when they’re hitting outside shots, they’re damn near unstoppable. With that said, they’re shooting just 34.3% from deep on the season(175th in CBB), and Auburn defends the three at a Top 5 rate in CBB.
Iowa’s defense is laughably bad; they rank 295th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt defense. If Auburn shies away from settling for outside shots, I don’t see why the Tigers shouldn’t be able to beat this defense off the dribble time-and-time again.
You have to give Bruce Pearl the coaching advantage over Fran McCafferey(notorious for missing the second weekend), but Auburn has been in a confusing state over the past calendar year. If you’ll remember, the Tigers were a Top 5 team for virtually all of last season before stumbling to the finish in a Round of 32 loss. This year, they have underperformed all season despite bringing back one of the most experienced groups in the SEC.
I can’t endorse backing Iowa given the major defensive mismatch here, but this is not an Auburn group that has inspired much confidence over the last few months. Pretty easy pass for me.
*Texas A&M(-3.5) vs Penn State O/U 134.5
You couldn’t find two offenses that operate more differently. A&M lives around the rim offensively and gets to the foul line at the 2nd highest rate in CBB, while Penn State ranks 12th in 3pt attempts per game but just 362nd in FT attempts per game.
For an offense that neglects the outside shot, it’s a bit concerning to see Texas A&M ranks just 241st in 2pt FG%; this should be their strength. The Aggies do hold a stark defensive edge, but Penn State stepped up tremendously on this end of the floor in their Big 10 Tournament push this past week.
Brad Underwood called Penn State’s offensive style “booty ball”, and if you’ve watched the Nittany Lions this season, that would make sense. They are incredibly patient and risk averse, will back defenders down early in the shot clock to create open looks for their perimeter players, and will make these shots at a high rate. The Aggies have been disruptive against standard offenses, but do I expect that to translate against this one-off style of offense?
I’d be worried about the FT discrepancy as a Penn State backer, but it’s hard to deny that this Penn State offense will be the best unit on the floor in this matchup. If last week was any indication, PSU will have a chance down the stretch.
*Colgate vs Texas(-13.5) O/U 150.5
I’m a die-hard Texas fan who doesn’t offer betting opinions on my Horns, but I feel pretty equipped to share my view of this squad’s makeup.
Many people think Texas runs through Marcus Carr offensively, but the Horns have gotten much more multiple down the stretch of the season. Big-man Dylan Disu has become an integral part of this offense, scoring 10+ in 5 of his last 6 games and 18 in the B12 Championship vs Kansas. Throw in sixth-man Sir’Jabari Rice, veteran F Timmy Allen, surging guard Tyrese Hunter, and a deep bench, and it’s safe to say the Horns have plenty of weapons to beat you.
Texas’ kryptonite defensively is assuredly good offensive rebounding teams; they rank just 186th in defensive rebounding %. They’ve been a little more inconsistent on this end of the floor since Chris Beard’s departure, but they do force TO’s at the 14th highest rate in CBB.
Colgate is one of the best 2pt and 3pt offenses in America and takes great care of the basketball. However, they will not be able to take advantage of Texas’ weakness defensively(292nd in ORB%), and hitting jumpers at a ridiculous rate is virtually their only path to hang in this game considering their subpar on-ball defense(240th in both 2pt and 3pt defense) and lack of disruption on that end of the floor.
Texas is a team that relies on Free Throws quite a bit, but Colgate fouls at the lowest rate in America. That’s a little wrinkle that could matter in a matchup where you’re laying a big number.
