What a first round of the NCAA Tournament! Four big bracket busters in Oral Roberts, Ohio, North Texas and Abilene-Christian and a ton of close games gave us an entertaining first round. We’re 8-6 so far in free picks and hey I’ll take it– this year ain’t for the faint of heart! Let’s tackle some Midwest and South region picks for Sunday’s slate!
Loyola-Chicago/Illinois over 134 (-105), 1.5 units: This line may come down a tad so maybe it’s best to wait, but I’ll go with an over here. Illinois is appropriately favored by 7.5 (I’d actually lean the Loyola-Chicago side), which tells me that the books expect Illinois to play with a good 1-3 possession lead throughout this contest. The white-hot Illini are a fast paced team, ranked 79 overall on KenPom in adjusted tempo. As we all should know by now, Sister Jean and the Ramblers rely on and have a gifted defense that showed its merit Friday against a really good offense in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were without Moses Wright but GT was flexing a really effective offense leading up to the tournament, so that’s still an impressive feat by Loyola. I think it’s fair to say that Illinois is a different beast, though. Kofi Cockburn and the other stars aren’t sitting out this game and the Illini should push the pace in an effort to overwhelm the Ramblers. Retreating to a more methodical pace would only play into the hands of Loyola. The Ramblers won’t go down easy and I think they stay within distance, pushing this game over the total when the inevitable wave of free throws show up at the finale.
Lean, West Virginia -4 (-115): I’m reminded of a stat I included in my first round of Midwest picks on Friday: According to ESPN, the Mountaineers are 13-0 when they hold opposing teams to 71 points or fewer and 5-9 when opponents exceed 71 points. Hmm, can they prevent the surging Orangemen from getting to that mark today? I’m not so sure. It’s hard not to be impressed by what Syracuse has done lately. They dropped 78 on a very good San Diego St. defense and not including a loss against UVA in the ACC Tourney, the Orangemen have averaged 76 ppg in their last five contests. West Virginia has a spectacular offense but they’re not all that intimidating on defense. Syracuse got the tougher draw in the first round against San Diego St., whereas this is a decent step up in class for West Virginia. If Miles McBride has another big game for the Mountaineers, I think it’ll be night night for Syracuse, but that’s a big “if.” In the end, I think West Virginia is a the better all around team and they’re more battle-tested coming out of a very good Big-12 Conference. Also, Syracuse shot a ridiculous 55% from the field AND from the 3-point line in their first round game, as well as 85% from the FT line. That won’t happen again. I’ll lean to the WV side but a 4 point line feels about right. If the total was around 140 or so, I’d lock down an over but that’s sitting at 147 and it’s hard to dispute.
Rutgers +8 (-115), 1.5 units: Sure, the Cougars could blow out the Scarlet Knights here and everyone would sarcastically say “wowww, what an unpredictable outcome,” but if Rutgers presents like the Memphis Tigers today, and I think they will, then Houston “we may have a problem.” Like the Tigers, Rutgers has an exceptional defense and plays at a slow pace. The Scarlet Knights rank in the top-25 in three of our four major defensive field goal categories on Haslametrics; shot opportunities won’t come easy for the Cougars. Rutgers also won’t be intimidated by Houston. They’re playing in their first tournament in 30 years and coming off an impressive .500 record in the hyper-talented Big 10 Conference against teams like Iowa and Michigan and Illinois (i.e., the best teams in college basketball). Houston has had an incredible season in the American Athletic Conference and deserves to be favored, but not by this much. This is the first time all year that the Cougars will see this level of competition, in my opinion. Is Rutgers elite? Probably not, but they are as gritty and battle-tested as it gets. I’ll take the Scarlet Knights to cover.
Villanova -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: (queue the screeching noise) Pump on the breaks there, North Texas. The Mean Green of North Texas got a really impressive win over Purdue on Friday and they deserve to celebrate. And I bet they did. And while I don’t think the Big East is all that impressive this year, Villanova won’t make the same mistakes as Purdue. The Boilermakers didn’t look ready for the Tournament. North Texas controlled the pace of the game Friday, staying ahead for the majority of the game and hitting at a high percentage from the field and beyond the arc. Villanova looked like, well, Villanova. Public and bracket-busting-favorite Winthrop came into Friday’s matchup full of hopes and dreams, but it was Villanova who looked like a professional and elite team, just going about business as usual. The Wildcats forced a ton of high percentage shots with great play at the rim and then locked down on defense, holding the high-octane Winthrop offense to only 63 points and 36% from the field. The Wildcats only committed 6 turnovers all game and were extremely efficient on offense. It’s why I like Villanova, even without Gillespie, to go further than people think. Coach Jay Wright is as buttoned up and cerebral as any coach in the nation and has a knack for preparing his boys to play well through chaos. I think Villanova punks a good North Texas team today.
Oklahoma State -6 (-110), 2 units: Okay yea, maybe I’m overlooking something here (I don’t think I am), but this is way too much respect for Oregon State. The Beavers have surged to end the season and as winners of the Pac-12 Conference, they deserve some respect. I just don’t think the Pac-12 is very good. Oregon State’s win against Tennessee was more about Tennessee– the Volunteers have been a volatile team all year and really underperform at times. Liberty is a really good sleeper team and the Cowboys easily overcame a nice game from the Flames, even without Cade Cunningham doing much of anything in the first half. Nerves get the best of us, even if you’re a future NBA guard, but I don’t like the prospect of a reawakened Cade Cunningham for the Beavers in this late matchup on Sunday. One of the better angles you can look to wager on in a postseason environment is to bet on the teams with the best player on the court. Oregon State has a decent offense and average defense; the latter should cause huge issues here Sunday. The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the country and I only like them better after surviving their first contest against Liberty. They play at a very fast pace (32nd in the nation in tempo) and their defense has seen much better than Oregon State. Second game in, nerves aside, I think the Cowboys ROLL the Beavers at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
