March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the South Bracket. A few of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in EDT cause that time change thing just happened and these games are in the South region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the South games
First Four
No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 16 St. Francis, 6:40 p.m., Tuesday March 18, Dayton, Ohio
No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina, 9:10 p.m. Tuesday March 18, Dayton, Ohio
First Round
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Alabama State/St. Francis, 2:50 p.m., Thursday March 20, Lexington, Ky.
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 Creighton, 12:15 p.m. Thursday March 20, Lexington, Ky.
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego, 10 p.m., Thursday March 20, Denver
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Yale, 7:25 p.m., 7:25 p.m. Thursday, March 20, Denver
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 San Diego State/North Carolina, 4:05 p.m. Friday March 21, Milwaukee
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Lipscomb, 1:30 p.m., Friday March 21, Milwaukee
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 New Mexico, 7:25 p.m., Friday March 21, Cleveland
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bryant 10 p.m., Friday March 21, Cleveland
No. 1 Auburn (-32) vs. No. 16 Alabama State O/U 150.5
Auburn dominated in the regular season losing only twice before March. Once to Duke and once to Florida. They then dropped three of their last four en route to an SEC tourney semifinal exit. This team does remind me a lot of the 2007 Florida team in that manner. Can they rebound to win the championship like that team did? We shall see. Got a look at Alabama St. last night and their last second win. They won’t be competing in this one. Winning the SWAC doesn’t quite prepare you Johni Broome and the Tigers. They did however get the first game NCAA jitters out of the way so I could see maybe looking at a first half line if the price gets right, but I’ll be staying away here for now.
No. 8 Louisville (-3) vs. No. 9 Creighton O/U 145
Louisville certainly feels slighted drawing a #8 seed after closing the season on a 21-2 run and finishing 18-2 in the ACC. They beat #4 seed Clemson twice and had the same conference record , but drew a seed line 3 spots higher. While they were probably slighted on the seed they do get a little comfort in the fact that their opening round games are basically home games playing just up the road in Lexington. If they get by Creighton they’d also have that going for them vs Auburn in the Round of 32. Creighton had a solid showing in the Big East finishing 15-5 and then losing to St. John’s in the Big East finals.
I like the home court look here for Louisville. They take care of the ball much better than Creighton does as well and Creighton doesn’t turn opponents over relying on solid half court defense especially on the interior. Creighton also is the second best three point shooting team in the country so they can make up for short comings elsewhere quickly. No play for me here.
No. 5 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego O/U 142.5
Big Ten Tournament champ Michigan dropped their last three regular season contests before winning three in a row to claim to title. UC San Diego comes into the contest with the nations longest winning streak at 15 games and are a popular pick to topple the Wolverines. Their best win however is against Utah St and the Big West certainly isn’t the same class of opponent they will face in Michigan.
UC San Diego has turnover numbers on their side taking care of the ball at the 7th best rate in the country and turning opponents over at the 2nd best clip in the nation. They also shoot a boatload of 3s and make them at a solid 36% clip. They’ll need to do that to overcome a major size difference inside against Michigan. The Wolverines are the exact opposite when it comes to turnovers ranking 328th in the country turning it over at almost a 20% clip. This could be what sinks them, but I think the size difference and physicality of Michigan will be too much. Look for Michigan to speed this one up and pound the rock inside when they don’t get easy looks in transition. Official play here.
Michigan -2.5 2 Units.
No. 4 Texas A&M (-7.5) vs. No. 13 Yale O/U 140
The Aggies draw a 4 seed and get a feisty Yale squad. They went 11-7 in a tough SEC with a late season win over Auburn in a game that meant nothing to the Tigers. Still 11 wins in the the SEC is nothing to write home about and they also knocked off Creighton, Texas Tech and Ohio St in the non-conference schedule. Yale went 13-1 in the Ivy league beating Cornell three times. They also own a win over Akron, but other than that the resume is fairly light.
Can the Bulldogs pull the upset? Certainly. This is the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the land and they take care of the ball only turning it over on 14.4% of their possessions. Yale will have to deal with a little more size and aggressiveness on the inside than they are used to seeing, but they are 22nd in the nation in limiting offensive rebounds. If they can do that against the best offensive rebounding team in the country they’ll have a chance. The Aggies also struggle shooting free throws and also shooting from the field. I like a back door cover here with a chance for an outright win if they’re hitting triples.
Yale +7.5 1.5 Units
No. 6 Ole Miss O/U 156 vs. No. 11 North Carolina (-1.5)
Ole Miss finished 10-8 in the SEC and had wins over Tennessee and Alabama on the resume, but they couldn’t keep games close against the top two SEC teams Auburn and Florida going 0-3 with a margin of defeat at just shy of 20 points per game. UNC proved me wrong last night and came in with a chip on their shoulder in the play-in game and blasted the doors off San Diego St. The victory was so absolute that they are now favored here as an 11 Seed vs 6 seeded Mississippi.
I got the cap wrong last night, I said UNC is gonna need to hit 3s and boy did they ever at 58%. Even beyond that however the Tar Heels controlled the game at both ends of the court. Ole Miss doesn’t turn the ball over at all which they will need to make sure continues against the Tar Heels who on paper have a superior team at both ends of the court. Neither of these squads is shy when it comes to getting up and down the court so I could see a shootout. The total had already jumped up two points since last night as well. I’ve got this 78-77 for UNC, and that’s to close to play anything on a side or a total here.
No. 3 Iowa State (-15) vs. No. 14 Lipscomb O/U 143
The Cyclones went 13-7 in Big 12 play, but lose star Keshon Gilbert for the tourney to injury. Someone will have to make-up the slack. They started the season 15-1, but struggled to the finish line even with a healthy Gilbert going only 9-8 to close in the Big 12 regular and post-season. Big time competition, injuries and the grind of major conference action seems to point to an early exit. Lipscomb won the ASUN tourney and tied for the regular season crown at 14-4.
I don’t think Lipscomb won’t be the team that knocks Iowa St. out with their best win being against Chattanooga, but they can keep it close with their ability to shoot the ball. They are excellent from the field and are the 7th best team in the nation at the free throw line. Iowa St. will be motivated however to show they’re still a good team. They also run four players out in the rotation at 6’9″ or taller and that will create issues inside and rebounding for the Bisons. No play for me here, but lean Lipscomb to shoot themselves to a cover.
No. 7 Marquette (-4) vs. No. 10 New Mexico O/U 153.5
After beating Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin and Georgia in the non-conference slate Marquette struggled against the best of the Big East finishing conference play at 13-7 before getting hammered by St. John’s in the Big East tourney. New Mexico comes in winners of 20 of their last 23, winning the MWC regular season title before falling to Boise St. in the MWC tourney.
The Lobos don’t shoot the ball particularly well especially from the free throw line and they make their living speeding up opponents and getting easy buckets in transition. Marquette does excel in limiting transition chances however ranking in the 90th percentile in limiting those chances with only 24.1 percent of opponent possessions ending in a shot within ten seconds. Marquette also is great at not turning it over, however this will by far be the fastest and most pressure packed team they’ve seen this year. If they can slow down Donovan Dent who is the only player in the tourney to average 20+ points and 5+ assists per game I like the Warriors chances to advance. Too many things going against each other in this game in strength vs strength however for me to wanna take a side. If anything I lean to the under looking at How Marquette played against a fairly fast St. John’s team where the total only went over in the game they played them to OT.
No. 2 Michigan State (-17.5) vs. No. 15 Bryant O/U 152.5
Michigan State breezed to a regular season Big Ten title before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Semis. The non-conference resume was nothing to write home about with losses to Memphis and Kansas and the best win being an overtime victory vs UNC. Bryant won the America East regular season title by a game and didn’t have to play Vermont in the title game thanks to a Maine upset.
Can a team make a deep NCAA run shooting 30.8% from beyond the arc? That’s the question for MSU fans. If you listened to our podcast earlier in the week Kiev and I are not high on the Big ten. The Spartans check all the boxes when it comes to defense, size and athleticism, but can they score enough in a big game? Not sure, but they won’t have to worry about it against Bryant here. This Bulldogs team isn’t nearly as good as the Vermont teams that have pulled upsets in the past out of America East. Bryant lived by being the seventh fastest paced team in the land and getting easy buckets in transition which Izzo and the Spartans should easily take away from them. Bryant got blasted by both top 100 Kenpom teams they played losing by 48 against Grand Canyon, and 22 against St. Johns. MSU doesn’t run like either of those teams, but they’ll handle Bryant without issue. 17.5 is too much to lay however so I’ll just sit back and enjoy this one.
