Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June has been less than stellar to start. For the season we currently sit at 60-66-38 -4.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays. Today’s being one of those.
My Analysis today turns to Nationals Park in Washington DC where the Washington Nationals (30-38) will host the Miami Marlins (25-41) at 6:45 ET. The current line sits with the Nationals as slight favorites at -110 (Marlins +105) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -120. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out slightly to right at roughly 5mph.
The Marlins have struggled as of late losing 8 of 10 since June began and scoring just 3.4 runs per game. The Nationals also have dropped 8 of their last ten albeit against much better competition than the fish.
Miami starts Edward Cabrera on the bump hoping for good things to happen tonight and for the rest of the season for him. He hasn’t completed a full season in the bigs without injury thus far. After a rough start to the season coming off the IL with a 7.23 ERA in April he has only allowed seven earned runs since then. His peripherals have been solid in lining up with his ERA as he sports a 3.99 mark. His BABIP allowed is at .336 so there is also some positive regression coming for him. He is still striking out over a batter an innings and his walk rate is the lowest of his career at 3.81 batter per nine innings.
On the other side the Nats will run our Mitchell Parker. A lefty who doesn’t strike out many hitters. He has a 4.44 ERA, but has been extremely lucky so far with a HR% against at just 6.6% and a BABIP allowed at .255. He’s got some rough waters coming his way yet as the numbers even out for the season. He is only striking out 5.96 hitters per nine innings and walks 3.55. Up until his start Saturday against the Rangers he had allowed 3+ earned runs in seven straight starts.
So what’s the angle? The offenses are very similar with Miami holding a .690 OPS and Washington a .687. So it boils down to quite simply, Cabrera is the better guy on the mound. While both pitchers allow their share of hard contact, Cabrera can recover with the K, where Parker struggles in that department. Parker got 12 ground ball outs in his first meeting with Miami (Ironically enough these same pitchers opposed each other in that game back in April) and that is highly unlikely to repeat itself. Cabrera’s biggest weakness is walks, and the Nats are 26th in MLB in that department. I look for Cabrera to hopefully get through a decent five innings with a lead and then all bets are off as both of these bullpens are atrocious. (Miami 25th in MLB 4.66 ERA, Nationals 29th in MLB 5.70 ERA). – Maybe Live bet the over in the 5th.
Marlins F5 -120 for 2 Units
