I cashed my first multi-unit play of the season with the Giants TT OVER last night which made it 2 straight winning nights to start the week. I’ve made 3 MLB plays for today looking to keep things rolling. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+105) vs Rockies–2:45 PM CT
After last night, I am now +5.88u going against the Rockies on the road this year. Overall, the Rockies are 5-9 on the road this season and 1-8 over their last 9. They’ve lost the first two games of this series by 3 and 7 runs, respectively, and they’re at another matchup disadvantage today. Giants SP Alex Cobb had one blowup start against the Nationals but has otherwise looked sharp this season. While his ERA sits at 4.80, his FIP of 2.23 indicates he’s pitched much better than the ERA would indicate. Cobb held a brilliant 0.48 HR/9 last year and has allowed just one long ball this year. The Rockies home/road hitting splits are astronomical, and that’s especially true against right-handed pitching; the Rocks held a lowly .620 OPS on the road vs righties last season and hold a .541 OPS in that scenario this year. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has looked very good to start the season, but I do not think that will hold up as the Rockies face some of the stiffer competition in the NL. Kuhl’s 3 road starts this year have come against the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Rangers; not only are those 3 of the worst offenses in baseball, but each park is very pitcher friendly. Today, he’ll face a Giants lineup that has dominated right-handed pitching at home and has scored 8.5 runs/game over their last 4. In his time with the Pirates, Kuhl had some of the worst road numbers in the league, and I believe today will start a stretch where those numbers start to come to fruition this year. The Giants also hold a significant bullpen advantage considering the Rockies rank dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP and have fared much worse on the road. I can’t for the life of me figure out why we continue to get plus-money offers to fade the Rockies on the road. I’ll look to go 6-0 in this spot today.
*MLB(1u): Angels ML(-125) vs Rays–6:07 PM CT
As shared by our friend Ralph Michaels(@CalSportsLV on Twitter) from WagerTalk, teams are just 27-36 the day after getting no-hit over the last 20 years. When they’re on the road, that drops to just an 11-18 record. While that’s only a part of my handicap, it is worth noting that this is a profitable angle. As for the matchup, it’s not hard for me to back Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani held a 1.95 ERA at home last season, and a current FIP at 1.54 indicates that he’s perhaps in the best form of his career. While the Rays tend to handle righties well away from home, the fact they got no-hit last night is a pretty strong indicator that they are not in great current form. Also, this is the final game of a 10-game West coast road trip for the Florida-based Rays, so this is not a spot I’d like them in to begin with. Rays SP Shane McClanahan is a powerful lefty arm who should be around for a long time, but this is not an easy matchup whatsoever. Even in a down year, the Angels mashed lefties at home last year(.813 OPS) and have the best offense in the league through 1 month of the season. By virtue of throwing a no-hitter, the Angels have a fresh bullpen for tonight. While I can almost always trust the Rays in the later innings, their bullpen has received a ton of usage during this road trip, and the Angels actually hold a better bullpen WHIP up to this point in the season. This is not a good spot for the Rays(as history shows), and with Ohtani on the bump today, the Angels should be set to complete the 3-game sweep.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(-122) @ Twins–6:40 PM CT
The Astros come into tonight having won 8 straight and are allowing just 1 run/game over that stretch. Astros SP Jose Urquidy has not looked great this year, but this is a very manageable matchup. The Twins have scored just 2 runs/game over their last 5 games and are still without Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Luis Arraez. Urquidy fired 6 shutout innings against the Tigers in his last start, and given he had a 1.07 WHIP on the road last year, I’m inclined to trust him today. Twins SP Chris Archer is a clear “play against” guy in my mind. An ERA at 3.26 might not lend you to that conclusion, but a FIP of 5.78 is a strong sign that Archer is due to get shelled. Archer has been trying for 7 years to recover the stuff he had in his early days as a Ray, so I don’t see why a matchup with one of the league’s most reliable lineups is all of a sudden the turning point. The Astros haven’t put up many crooked numbers recently, but given their pitching dominance, they haven’t really needed to. This lineup ranked 2nd in road OPS vs righties last season, and I think their best days lay ahead. I give the clear bullpen advantage to Houston as well, making this -122 price a bargain in my mind. I think the Twins’ sweep of the Athletics over the weekend was deceiving, and last night seemed to back up that notion. I like the Astros to keep it rollin’ tonight.
