I am currently +1.53u this week and am rolling with 4 MLB plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Dodgers TT OVER 4.5(-115) vs Phillies–9:10 PM CT
The Dodgers fell behind early to the Phils last night due to some poor starting pitching, but they put up good at-bats all night, totaling 12 hits and 7 runs. The Phillies bullpen has been unreliable to begin with, and now they will be without Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, and Corey Knebel today as each of those guys has thrown the past 2 days. I think this will prove to be crucial because Phillies SP Kyle Gibson will not be in his ideal role tonight. Gibson was a mediocre SP at best for the first 8 years of his career but found himself last year as a Texas Ranger. Even so, he had alarming home/road splits(4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP on the road last year). While he’s started this year off nicely, the Dodgers are an absolute juggernaut against right-handed pitching. There are 5 hitters in the Dodgers lineup who have an OPS greater than 1.000 against Gibson, and when you add in the Phillies bullpen situation, I think this lineup goes off tonight. Clayton Kershaw is an easy guy to back, but the Phillies have been the best lineup in the league against lefties this year. I’m going to isolate the matchup I feel best about and back the Dodgers lineup at a standard number and price.
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Marlins UNDER 6.5(-120)–5:40 PM CT
This is easily the best pitching matchup of the night. Marlins SP Pablo Lopez carries a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP into tonight’s start. While that ERA is unsustainable, his career success pitching at home leads me to back him tonight; he held a 2.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 at home last year. The Brewers hold pretty good offensive numbers overall, but you have to consider they’ve played 2 series a piece against the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs. We’ve already seen the Brewers put up 0 or 1 runs 6 separate times this year, and given the matchup and ballpark that heavily favors pitchers, I wouldn’t be surprised if they add to that tally tonight. With that said, I believe Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner held a 1.62 FIP last year and currently holds a 1.86 ERA this year. Burnes is damn near unhittable, and he actually fares better on the road. The Marlins have started off the year hot at home, but history would tell you that’s not sustainable. Given they rank just 17th in runs/game and are very mediocre in the slugging department, I will back an elite pitcher over a mediocre offense any day. Each team comes off a day of rest, so each bullpen should be fresh. I trust the Marlins bullpen more than the Brewers’, but given I expect Burnes to go deep in this game, I’m willing to put this bet in the hands of the likes of Brad Boxberger and Josh Hader. This should be an absolute pitcher’s duel.
*MLB(0.72u): Padres ML(+140) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
We’ll get another good pitching matchup here with Max Fried facing off against Yu Darvish. Fried has looked good for Atlanta this year, but this is anything but an easy matchup. The Padres rank 7th in OPS against lefties this year and should have a better chance at going deep tonight given they’re away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have been a bit inconsistent as of late, but I put almost all of that on the fact they’re relying on a lot of inexperienced starting pitching. That won’t be an issue for them tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish’s ERA as a Padre is a bit deceiving to me; he’s held a WHIP under 1.10 each of the past 2 seasons and is still a guy I want to back. The Braves have been mediocre offensively this season and have relied almost solely on HR’s to fuel their offense. It’s also worth noting that Darvish fired 6.2 innings of 1 run ball against the Braves earlier this season. The bullpen matchup is pretty even, but it’s worth noting that the Braves rely on a few lefties late in games that might not match up ideally against this Braves offense. In any case, this line should be much closer to a pick’em than what it currently sits at. I will back the road dog and take advantage of the price to hopefully win us a full unit.
*MLB(0.5u): Guardians ML(+140) @ Twins–7:10 PM CT
Virtually every member of the Guardians coaching staff is sick and unavailable for tonight’s game. Pair that with the fact Cleveland has not played since Tuesday, this will remain a small play for me. However, I see a lot of intrinsic value on the Guardians here. Twins SP Sonny Gray is consistently given far too much love by the betting markets; while he has good stuff, his issue with walks continually come back to bite him. He is also making just his 4th start of the season and has failed to go more than 4.2 IP in a game this year. The Twins just played a double-header against Houston yesterday, leaving their bullpen at far less than peak rest entering tonight’s matchup. The Guardians also sneakily rank 2nd in OPS vs righties this season and consistently take advantage of bad bullpen arms(did you see the White Sox game on Monday?). Guardians SP Aaron Civale has run into some bad luck this season, as his FIP remains 4.5 points below his ERA. He actually pitched well against Toronto last weekend, allowing just 6 baserunners through 5.2 innings. Civale held a brilliant 3.03 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the road last year, and he has great numbers historically against this Twins order. The Twins are still without Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Trevor Larnach. In addition, this offense is also in horrible current form, scoring less than 2 runs/game over their last six. The Guardians hold a sizeable bullpen advantage and have 2 days of rest under their belts, so this full game price makes no sense to me. This will remain a 0.5u given the concerns I mentioned off the top, but I think Cleveland pulls out the win here.
