A 3-1, +3u Friday night puts me at +4.53u on the week! I’m rolling with 3 plus-money MLB plays for today looking to add on to that tally. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Athletics GM1 ML(+105) vs Angels–3:07 PM CT
This is a “hold your nose” type of play, but this line speaks volumes. We have a 22-12 Angels team as short favorites against arguably the worst offensive team in baseball. However, when you start to dissect this pitching matchup, the fishy line begins to make more sense. Athletics SP Paul Blackburn has looked brilliant through 6 starts, currently holding a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. While the Angels offense has looked good this season, they’ve managed to muster together only 2 runs a piece in their last 2 games. Blackburn has shut down the likes of Tampa Bay, Toronto, and San Francisco this year, and I think he’s bound for another quality start today. The Athletics offense is putrid, but they’ll be facing a soft-throwing lefty today in Jhonathan Diaz who will be sent down to AAA after today’s double-header. The A’s are clearly better against lefties, and this is as ideal of a spot as they’re going to find themselves in. While I give the bullpen advantage to the Angels, they needed Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, and Raseal Iglesias to close last night’s game. I’m not at the point with this bullpen where I’m willing to trust them when they’re not on ideal rest. I’m buying into this fishy line and backing the A’s in as ideal of a spot as they’re going to find themselves in when stepping up in competition.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox ML(+100) @ Rangers–6:05 PM CT
Given how bad Boston looked over the first month of the season, you can’t blame the oddsmakers for pricing them as a bottom-barrel team. With that said, I’ve seen enough over their past 3 games to believe the Red Sox are turning a corner. They won 7-1 last night in Texas in a similarly priced game and put together 12 runs in their 2-game series against the Braves earlier this week, a series they should’ve swept if not for the umpiring disaster we saw in Wednesday’s game. Rangers SP Glenn Otto holds an impressive 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this year, but he has a high hard-contact rate of 33%, a left-on-base percentage at 82%, and a FIP at 4.73. I am very low on the Texas bullpen and think they could finish with the worst numbers in the league, so this is another very manageable matchup for the Sox offense. Red Sox SP Rich Hill might be 42, but he’s still chugging along and putting up quality numbers. He holds a 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and will face a Rangers lineup that is well below average. I usually don’t love trusting the Red Sox bullpen, but they only needed Kutter Crawford last night and had an off day before that. We’ll see if Boston can return to last year’s form, but in any case, I think this is a great opportunity to play on a talented team that is showing signs of life.
*MLB(1u): Rockies -1.5(+110) vs Royals–7:10 PM CT
Rockies SP German Marquez has looked horrible this year, plain and simple. However, his career reputation and success pitching at Coors Field allows me to overlook the slow start and trust him today against a bad Royals lineup. I know KC put up 14 runs last night, but the disparity between Kyle Freeland and German Marquez’s styles is night and day. Royals SP Carlos Hernandez is not a ML caliber arm, and he’ll go up against a Rockies lineup that thrives hitting at Coors Field. The Rockies bullpen has actually fared better at home this year, while the Royals ‘pen is both fatigued and ineffective. While I love fading the Rockies on the road, I like backing them at home just as much. They have failed to lose back-to-back home games this year, so I will trust them to keep that trend rolling tonight and for Marquez to find his way.
