I gave back 0.71u last night but am still +7.4u over the past 9 days! I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays for tonight looking to add to that tally. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group! I will also be live on Twitter and YouTube at 12:30 PM CT to discuss today’s slate.
*MLB(1u): Giants/Rockies OVER 11(-110)–2:10 PM CT
I have had a great feel for this Rockies team all year(+9.97u in Rockies games this year). The Over has cashed easily each of the past two nights, and while today’s pitching matchup might look good on paper, I think this is a bad spot for each arm. Giants SP Logan Webb was phenomenal at home last year(sub 2.00 ERA), but his numbers plummeted once he got out of Oracle Park(4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). This year, he holds an ugly 1.33 WHIP and is striking out only 6.1/9 innings, indicating something is off with the righty arm. The Rockies offense is a juggernaut at home, scoring well over 6 runs/game at Coors Field. In addition, the 6th/7th/8th/9th inning arms in the Giants bullpen have thrown each of the past two days, so we are unlikely to see a high caliber arm out of the Giants bullpen today. With all that said, Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has been shelled routinely this year, including in his last start where he allowed 12 hits to the measly Royals lineup. I was surprised to see the Giants actually finished 2nd in OPS against lefties on the road last year, and aside from Brandon Crawford, this lineup has fared well against Freeland in the past. The Rockies bullpen ranks last in bullpen WHIP and is an easy unit to fade in my opinion. I think you can make a case that there is some value on the Rockies today, but if the last two nights have taught us anything, the better play is to just trust each offense and bet the Over.
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(-105) vs Padres–5:45 PM CT
Blake Snell vs Zack Wheeler might look like a heavyweight pitching matchup, but I think Wheeler has the clear advantage entering tonight. Wheeler’s one blowup start in Miami greatly skew his numbers this season; in my mind, he’s one of the best arms in the game. He held fantastic numbers at home last year(2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) and will get an easier matchup than you’d think. While the Padres excel against lefties, this lineup ranks just 24th in the league in OPS vs righties(.645). Padres SP Blake Snell had great numbers at Petco Park last season, but he had some of the worst road numbers in the league(6.12 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9). Citizens Bank Park gives a clear advantage to hitters, and the Phillies rank 3rd in OPS vs lefties this year. This is also Snell’s first start of the season, so he can’t be expected to be at his sharpest right out of the gate. The stars seem to be aligned here for the Phillies to jump out to an early lead in this game. I’ll isolate the first 5 innings because I want no part of that Phillies bullpen in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-120) vs Cardinals–6:10 PM CT
It’s Max Scherzer day in Queens! Much like Wheeler, Scherzer is one the easiest pitchers for me to trust in the league, and a WHIP at 0.91 this year is a strong indicator that Mad Max is still his dominant self. He threw 7 shutout innings against this Cardinals lineup at the beginning of the season, and given St Louis struggles against right-handed pitching, I’m inclined to trust him today. Cardinals SP Jordan Hicks is a talented arm, but he is much more suited for the bullpen than this starter’s role. Hicks has a lively fastball, but walking 5 batters/9 innings is not a sustainable way to succeed. The Mets have been a clear Top 10 offense in baseball this year, and given they have Scherzer on the bump, a run or two could be all we need. While the full game run line offers a bit more value, I don’t want to be involved with either bullpen given these teams played a doubleheader yesterday. Rather, I’ll isolate the F5 and take advantage of the matchup that clearly favors NYM.
