Coming off a 3-1, +2.2u Tuesday, I am now +14.7u over the last 16 days! I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to add to what’s been a great month for us. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Mariners TT OVER 3.5(-125) vs Athletics–3:10 PM CT
The Mariners are in very good current form offensively; over their last 7 games, the M’s are averaging 5 runs/game. While A’s SP Paul Blackburn looks dominant on paper, I do not suspect that to hold up for much longer. He showed signs of regression in his last start against the Angels(8 baserunners in 4.2 IP), and he carries an alarming hard-hit rate of 36.4% while only striking out 7.23 batters per 9 innings. T-Mobile Park tends to favor pitchers, but with a wind of 15 mph blowing out to CF on a sunny afternoon, I think hitters will hold the advantage today. 3.5 is the wrong number to begin with in this matchup when you contextualize Blackburn’s hot start and account for the Mariners’ current form offensively. I’m willing to lay a little extra juice at this number.
*MLB(0.74u): Phillies F5 ML(+135) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Charlie Morton is a guy I’ve been able to trust routinely for the last few years, but he hasn’t impressed me this year. In addition to holding a 1.45 WHIP through 8 starts, Morton is striking out 2 batters less per 9 innings than he did last year. The Phillies are a “boom or bust” type of offense, but they are scoring 5 runs/game over their last 4 and put up 10 hits in Atlanta last night. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has seemingly identical numbers to Morton, but the lefty holds a hard-contact rate under 20% and has run into some tough luck early in the season. Last year, Suarez held a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP; while he’s almost assuredly not going to match those numbers in 2022, I think he’ll start trending more in that direction over the rest of the season. The Braves offense is inconsistent(if not mediocre) against left-handed pitching and rely very heavily on the long ball to produce runs. Unlucky for them, Suarez allowed just 0.34 HR/9 last year and, as I mentioned, limits hard contact. Given the Braves hold a significant bullpen edge, I will isolate the F5 here and sprinkle on the Phillies in a spot that I think should be much closer to a pick’em price.
