A 2-1, +1u Sunday wrapped up yet another winning weekend! I’m rolling with 2 plays this afternoon looking to start the new week on the right foot. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(0.77u): Royals F5 ML(+130) @ Cardinals–12:15 PM CT
Zack Greinke is well past his prime, but I still think he’s plenty equipped to stymie the Cardinals’ bats today. Greinke threw much better than his final line in his last start against the White Sox(just 5 baserunners through 6 innings) and saw some swing-and-miss return to his game. While I like backing the Cardinals against lefties, they ranked just 28th in OPS vs righties in their home ballpark last season. Additionally, if not for a 4 run 7th inning yesterday, they would’ve lost their third straight game to the lowly D-Backs; I believe that comeback had more to do with the ineptness of the D-Backs bullpen. Cardinals SP Steven Matz has given up 25 hits through 17.1 IP this season despite drawing some favorable matchups. While the Royals’ lineup is anything but a juggernaut, I do like them slightly more going against left-handed pitching. I’ll take Greinke over Steven Matz any day, and I don’t mind playing against the Cardinals lineup when they face righties. I’m seeing enough value here to play the Royals F5 to win us 1u.
*MLB(1u): White Sox TT OVER 3.5(-130) vs Angels–1:10 PM CT
I don’t love laying -130, but this is simply the wrong number. Angels SP Patrick Sandoval has yet to allow a run this season through 3 starts, but this is easily his toughest test. The White Sox have come out of the gates slow this year, yet they still rank 2nd in OPS vs lefties. We saw Chicago rally to put up 5 runs in the 9th inning yesterday, which I believe will have a carryover effect into today. Additionally, it all but guarantees Angels CP Raisel Iglesias will be unavailable for today’s game, which instantly downgrades an Angels bullpen that needs every back-end arm available to earn my trust. While the White Sox put up 0 runs against Michael Lorenzen yesterday, they did tag him for 9 hits, signaling the opportunity for a breakthrough is there. I do believe Sandoval will be effective for LA this year, but I expect him to regress in his next few starts. I’ll trust the White Sox offense today in a role they’ve excelled in consistently.
