I have netted +11.26u over the last 3 weeks and am looking to start the new week off strong with 2 winners. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers TT OVER 5.5(-120) @ Cubs–12:05 PM CT
Cubs SP Matt Swarmer will be making his major league debut in some brutal conditions today; the wind will be blowing out 15 mph to left-center field on a sunny day in Chicago. The Brewers offense doesn’t step up in competition very well, but this offense routinely takes advantage of mediocre right-handed pitching. Dating back to last season, this is an offense that also swings the bat well on the road. While Swarmer held a sub-1.00 WHIP in Triple-A this year, we know that doesn’t mean much as to how he’ll fare at the big-league level. The Brewers put up 8 runs in St. Louis yesterday, 6 of which came off Miles Mikolas(who held a sub-2.00 ERA entering that start). Additionally, the Cubs used 3 of their back-end arms(Effross, Givens, Robertson) each of the past 2 days, so none of those guys are likely to be available this afternoon. The Cubs bullpen has overperformed this year to begin with, and without 3 key pieces, I don’t trust some of their lesser arms in this matchup. I’ll overpay a bit and isolate the Brewers offense on a day where the ball should be flying out of Wrigley with relative ease.
*MLB(1u): Rockies TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Marlins–3:10 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has been lights out over the last 2 seasons at home, but those numbers plummet drastically on the road. He held a 4.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from home last year and now enters arguably the toughest matchup this league offers a starting pitcher. Coors Field is a well-known hitters park, and today, the wind will be blowing out nearly 20 mph towards RF. Because of these conditions, the Rockies offense holds the best home numbers in the league, scoring nearly 6 runs/game at Coors this year. While they tend to struggle mightily on the road, the Rockies mustered together 18 runs across their 4 game set in Washington over the weekend. By their standards, they enter this game in good current form. Lopez has also struggled in each of his last 2 starts, allowing 3 HR’s against the Rays last week after lasting only 3 innings against the Nationals before that. After a hot start to the year, the Marlins bullpen(like the rest of their team) has proven to be a pretty mediocre unit; in this tough of a spot, I don’t mind being against them one bit. Throwing out 4.5’s on a Rockies TT when they’re at Coors Field is borderline ridiculous. I’ve made over 8u on my action in Rockies games this year, and I expect to add to that after a good offensive performance from them today.
