A 2-0, +2u Monday brings me to +13.26u over the last 22 days! I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays for tonight looking to put a bow on what’s been a great month. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays -1.5(+130) vs White Sox–6:07 PM CT
Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman is having a Cy Young caliber season for the Jays; while his ERA at 2.25 is a good indicator of that, a FIP at 1.31 is better proof Gausman is pitching at that elite level. In addition to striking out 10.5 batters per 9 innings, Gausman has issued just 5 walks this season while only allowing 1 home run. The White Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching all season and will be without their 3 most important bats tonight(Anderson, Jiminez, Robert). White Sox SP Lucas Giolito is a steady arm, but he’s facing a Blue Jays lineup that seems to be rounding into form. Over their last 5 games, the Jays are averaging 7 runs/game, which included an 11 run output against the Angels on Sunday. Toronto’s bullpen might be only slightly above average, but they have a clear advantage over a White Sox ‘pen that ranks just 25th in Bullpen WHIP. In addition, the Sox are without 2 key bullpen pieces in Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly. I think Gausman deserves the “Corbin Burnes treatment” given his excellence dating back to last year, and I’m not afraid to play against a White Sox team that is really beaten up at the moment. I like the Jays to make it 6 straight and win this game comfortably.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 ML(-120) vs Padres–6:45 PM CT
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright is simply a guy I want to back in his home ballpark. The veteran righty held a 2.74 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Busch Stadium last year, and even at 40 years old, I think his pitching style will continue to yield good results in that ballpark. While the Padres pitching has held them up this year, their offense ranks just 27th in OPS vs righties and is averaging just 2.6 runs/game over their last 7. Padres SP Blake Snell has had a ton of success pitching in Petco Park, but he held some of the worst road numbers in the league last season(6.12 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 in 60.1 innings). In his lone road start this year, the lefty allowed 3 runs in 3.2 innings in Philadelphia; until we see a strong reversal in this trend, I’m going to continue to look to play against Snell in his road starts. To make matters worse, the Cardinals rank 1st in OPS vs left-handed pitching this year. This will remain a F5 play for me given the Padres do hold the bullpen advantage, but this is the exact spot I’m looking to back St. Louis in. I’d play this up to -130.
*MLB(1u): Rockies ML(-125) vs Marlins–7:40 PM CT
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a disastrous start to the 2022 season, but his reputation across the last 5 seasons is enough for me to overlook that. Marquez has acclimated himself to pitching at Coors Field in recent seasons, and he gets a relatively easy matchup tonight. The Marlins put up just 1 run in a pretty favorable matchup against these Rockies yesterday and rank just 25th in runs this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies are averaging 6 runs/game in their home ballpark and will face a very vulnerable arm in Edward Cabrera. Cabrera had horrible numbers across 7 starts last year(5.61 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) and will make his season debut in the most hitter-friendly park in the league. While the talent is there, Cabrera has major control issues and also allowed 2 HR/9 at the big league level last year. While Miami has a better bullpen in most spots, we saw them completely implode in this unique environment yesterday. Additionally, the Rockies ‘pen has performed better in their home ballpark this year. I want to buy low on Marquez today and back this Rockies team in a role they’ve become accustomed to excelling in.
