I didn’t have the start to the week I was looking for, but I’ve got my eyes on 2 plays for tonight looking to get us back on track. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Twins TT OVER 4.5(-115) @ Orioles–6:05 PM CT
Over their last 11 games, the Twins are averaging just under 6 runs/game. They’ll get another favorable matchup today facing Orioles SP Spenser Watkins. While Watkins holds a 2.55 ERA through 4 starts, a 1.25 WHIP indicates that ERA is not sustainable. He has just 8 strikeouts through 17.2 IP, and his FIP(expected ERA) sits at 5.18. The Orioles bullpen has been about league average this year, but I think they’ve overperformed up to this point. This is a staff giving up almost 6 runs/game on getaway day this year, while the Twins are averaging 5 runs/game in that same spot(usually against much tougher pitching staffs). I have no problem backing the Twins offense at this number and price.
*MLB(1u): Marlins F5 TT OVER 1.5(-130) @ Padres–8:40 PM CT
Padres SP Nick Martinez is not a major-league caliber pitcher. Through 4 starts, he holds an ugly 1.68 WHIP, is giving up 2.29 HR/9, and has a FIP at 6.55. The Marlins are on a bit of a cold spell, but that has little to do with their offense; they’ve averaged 4.5 runs/game amidst this 4 game losing streak. The Marlins are handling righties especially well this season, ranking 6th in the league in OPS vs righties. I believe the price of this game reflects how bad Martinez is; why else would a 16-9 team be -110 at home against a clearly inferior club? However, I don’t want to take my chances on Marlins SP Jesus Luzardo given his knack for blowup innings. I’ll isolate the Marlins offense and take this cheap F5 TT at what I consider to still be a reasonable price given the matchup.
