If you have followed my articles, you’ve noticed that I like to look for value plays in the lower tier conference matchups. Tonight, I find one with Bethune Cookman on the road at Savannah State.
Only three teams in the country have worse deficiency ratings than Savannah State. Likewise, their offensive style of play is very difficult to watch. They jack up threes on 53% of their possessions, but shoot 29% from 3. Savannah State’s average possession length is 13.1 seconds, which is ranked the fasted tempo in the country. What does all of that translate to: horrible shot efficiency, nobody in place to battle for offensive rebounding, and wasted possessions (unless of course they are shooting lights out – not likely).
Bethune Cookman, while they may not be an offensive juggernaut, doesn’t have to do much here. They have clear statistical advantages in effective FG%, offensive efficiency, and even more so, defensive efficiency. They rebound at a significantly higher rate than does Savannah State on both ends of the floor, which is really important when you think of horrible shot taking on both sides.
I like to use KenPom’s Player Ratings to compare at least the top 6 players in possession %. The differential in player ratings across those top 6 players is 23.3 points in favor of Bethune-Cookman, and they have an even bigger advantage further down the bench.
Currently the line sits at -2. The money line, however, is -130 which I believe has value on the dollar.
Play: Bethune Cookman Money Line -130
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