Friday 1/11
Purdue vs Wisconsin -5.0
If you look at both of these teams you think top 30 and both tournament this year. Purdue has an outstanding guard in Carson Edwards scoring 24.5 points per game but there is a significant drop off after him. There is only 1 more guy at Purdue who averages double digit points and that is Senior guard Ryan Cline at 12.5 per game. Wisconsin on the other hand has 3 guys in double digits with Ethan Happ, D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davidson with a much better defense than Purdue. One thing that I like to look at this time of year when handicapping college basketball is home road splits. Purdue at home averages a nice fat 82 points per game but when they get on the road it is down to 74. Wisconsin at home average a fat 81 points per game at home and only 69 on the road showing a huge varience how much better they are at the Kohl Center. The fact that Wisconsin plays a slower game and outranks Purdue in both FG percentage 50% at home to Purdue’s 42.7% on the road speaks volumes. The Badgers had a stinker against the Gophers their last game at home and may be looking for some redemption for the fans. Purdue also will be without swing forward
Evan Boudreaux having a pulled groin who is their 4th best scorer. The fact that Purdue is 0-4 straight up against top 25 teams and 1-3 on the road ATS takes the cake. The formula here is simple. Stop Carson Edwards and win big. I have Wisconsin winning this 73-62.
Wisconsin -5 and lean under 137
Saturday 1/12
Virginia vs Clemson +7 (guess)
So this is a spot that I look for in College Basketball. You have a team like Clemson who is 10-5 and hungry for another tournament birth facing an undefeated and great Virginia team at home. The keys to this game is that Clemson was without Andre Reed for a while and I believe that some of those losses are going to be affected in this line. You also really can’t look at trends when a key player like him was injured. I like 4 things here. First, Reed is back over the last few games and now healthy. Secondly this is Clemson’s ACC home opener which they will definitely show up for to try and flex their muscles. Thirdly Clemson just faced another slow and methodical team in Syracuse. The Syracuse 2-3 zone is similar to their Pack-line Defense of Virginia’s and Clemson should now be ready for it. The last thing is that Virginia will be looking ahead to their rival number 9 Virginia Tech and may sleep walk through this game.
Clemson +7 and ML sprinkle
Pittsburgh vs NC State -12 O/U 157
So Pittsburgh is coming off of a very nice W against Louisville and this is I think the spot they let down. Pittsburgh has been kinda a hot and cold team all year but they really haven’t faced a ton of adversity or a hard schedule. I like the fact that NC State just lost their last game against North Carolina and should be poised for a bounce back spot. Pittsburgh doesn’t rank over 47th in any major category on offense even with this easy schedule yet somehow they are still 11-4 due to the bottom of the barrell teams that they have beaten. NC State on the other hand is 6th in points per game, 5th in field goal percentage, 11th in 3 point percentage and 12th in assists. NC State plays at a very fast at 75.2 plays per game adjusted for opponent which ranks 10th in the nation. Because of this they can easily run up the scores on bad teams. The Wolfpack averages 90 points per game at home and the Panthers average 69 points per game on the road. I have NC State here winning 89 to 74 here so I actually think that they can cover this spread as well as nail the over. Lets see where these lines come out but I like NC State up to 14
NC State -12 Lean over 157
Ohio State vs Iowa -2
Ohio State is coming off 2 losses in a row here one good vs Michigan State and one bad vs Rutgers while Iowa is coming off 2 nice wins vs Nebraska and Northwestern. Ohio State is dying for a win here and it would be pretty bad to drop 3 in a row starting big 10 play. That should be all the motivation in the world. Iowa seems to play much better at home on offense but on D they still give up 72 points per game whether at home or on the road. I have Iowa winning 75-74 from a Kenpom perspective but when you factor in the spot I think Ohio State may be slightly more motivated here. I would lean Ohio State at any dog here and might make a play on the over.
Ohio State +2
