Michigan vs Michigan State PK – O/U 130.5
Saint Patrick’s day! The Big 10 Championship is here and both of these teams are finally healthy! (For the most part) Michigan State has won the last 2 games and Michigan is looking for revenge and another Big 10 Title! Looking at these 2 teams, they are pretty similar in power rating both being top 8 in the nation. Kenpom has these teams Michigan State 4 and Michigan 5. The line from a power ratings perspective should be Sparty -1 but when you look at the previous meetings, Michigan State has seemed to own this team. Michigan has been on a tear lately destroying some very poor big 10 teams and had a very easy road to the championship game due to missing Purdue. Michigan State on the other hand didn’t have it so bad either shutting down a Wisconsin team to 35% shooting. Michigan State has the best offense in the big 10 but they also have the 3rd best defense. Michigan has the 4th best offense in the big 10 and the 2nd best defense. I think that due to the fact that both of these teams had blown out so many other big 10 teams this year is the reason that their pace numbers are so low at 66 plays per game for State and 65 for the Wolverines. I expect more of a shootout mentality here especially at the end of this game. The previous games went to 138 and 147. Michigan State is hungrier due to not winning it last year and I think they once again will create match-up problems for Michigan. There is this trend that 58% of championship games hit the under. Now this is true but I think it has been way over-steamed in my opinion. This line opened up at 135 and its now down to 130.5. Going to fade that trend and see what happens
I see lots of fouls and I have this game Michigan State winning 70-66. Gotta go green on St Patty’s day.
Michigan State PK and Over 130.5
