Atlanta vs Boston -137 O/U 10.5
This should be a fun game today with such a high total. Nick Pivetta is pitching for the Redsox and boasting a very nice 3.44 FIP over 47 innings this year. Drew Smyly is pitching for the Braves and looking at his numbers this year, there isn’t much to smile about. 6.36 FIP over 37 innings isn’t good at all. What makes this worse is that Smyly is a fly ball pitcher with over 47% of his hits in the air so far this year while the wind is blowing out today in Boston. Now the main thing for me here is that even though everyone is predicting bullpen regression for Boston, they still rank 3rd in Bullpen FIP while Atlanta ranks 17th. How much regression was bought into this line? Boston is the better hitting team ranking 4th in wRC+ to Atlanta’s 10th. The price is wrong in this game.
Boston -137 – 2 stars
Colorado vs NY Mets -132 O/U 6.5
This is a pretty low total here especially looking at the wind blowing out at 12 MPH at Citi Field. Now Marquez is a decent pitcher with a 3.96 FIP, but the Rockies Bullpen isn’t exactly what I would call championship material rankings 29th in FIP and last in ERA. The Rockies are not a good hitting team but they are due for some positive regression being that they have been stranding a bunch of runners in scoring position. This total is just a bit too low and I trust the over and lean the NY Mets at -132.
Over 6.5 – 1.5 stars
