Saint Louis vs Arizona -129 O/U 9.5
The Diamondbacks are on a massive losing streak of 11 games. Brutal. So the first question that should come to mind is, why is this team favored against the Cardinals? There are a few reasons for that. First, both teams rank close to each other in wRC+ with the Cardinals at 18th and the Diamondbacks at 20th. Arizona actually has the slightly better weighted on base percentage. Second, Arizona has their ace Madison Bumgarner at the helm today with a decent 3.85 FIP pitching against Johan Oviedo for the Cardinals who has only 15 innings in this year with a 6.06 FIP. Third, Arizona has the 3rd worst batting average with runners in scoring position and should be a positive regression candidate at some point especially when they are a close to average hitting team. Arizona has also stranded the 2nd most players on base this year. I agree with Arizona being a favorite here and I expect them to come out of the slump today.
Arizona -129 – 2 stars
Miami vs Boston -165 O/U 9
The overs have been killing it for Boston as this team has been so great at hitting the ball this year but today is a completely different animal. Today’s forecast is a chilly 52 degrees with light rain. Wind is slightly blowing in. More importantly, Left handed pitcher Martin Perez is pitching for the Red Sox boasting a 3.56 FIP and a pretty good 8.67 K/9 innings. Miami ranks 23rd against lefties this year. Cody Poteet is pitching for the Marlins and he is pretty green and all, but I really like what I have seen from him so far. Cody has a 2.71 FIP over 17 innings and also did well in AAA ball. I think for the weather today that this total is a bit high and could see a few different ways that it would go under. I don’t think the Marlins will hit well and Boston could be due for some negative hitting regression due to the fact that they are batting much better than expected. Boston has never seen Poteet pitch so lets see what happens with that.
Under 9 runs – 2 stars
