Blue Jays vs Rays -127 O/U 8.5
This should be a good matchup of 2 divisional rivals that are both over .500 for the season. Tampa has a huge 5.5 game lead on Toronto and I have to imagine that want to keep it that way. Alek Manoah takes the helm for the Blue Jays. I am calling his 2.70 ERA fake news right off of the bat being that his FIP is 4.46 with a WHIP of 1.24. Shane McClanahan is pitching for the Rays with an opposite situation where is ERA is 4.18 and his FIP is 3.87 and a 1.27 WHIP. Now Toronto is the better hitting team and especially as of late but the Rays have the 3rd best Bullpen FIP in the league compared to 15th for Toronto. McClanahan is a lefty and even though Toronto is good against lefties, they are actually hitting better vs righties. Finally, since May 1st, Toronto ranks 1st in batting average with runners in scoring position and first in BABIP or batting average on balls in play. They are a regression candidate in my opinion which means that they are mispriced right now in the market and this “could” be a game that it shows. I’ll grab the Rays at the short favorite.
Rays -127 – 2 stars
Phillies vs Red Sox -127 O/U 11
The Phillies just got done taking care of some business against a shell of a Cubs team last night. Now they get to continue their road trip to Boston where the balls have been flying. This total is pretty big here and when you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see why. Let’s look at these teams. Boston is the better hitting team ranking 9th in wRC+ to Philly’s 15th. Boston has the better bullpen ranking 10th to Philly’s 25th in FIP. Both pitchers Velasquez for the Phillies and Garret Richards for the Red Sox are equal in FIP in the 4.8 range. Lastly, Boston had a day off yesterday while Philly had to finish off the Addison street chokers. Take the low price on the Red Sox and maybe grab the run line.
Boston -127 – 1.5 stars
Boston -1.5 +146 – 1.5 stars
