1ST PITCH IS IN 8 DAYS!! We will start with the best division in baseball. The AL East. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays will all be looking to have their name at the top of the division by seasons end. I believe the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays futures numbers are right where they should be, so I have focused on the value plays below that I also have played personally and sent out to premium clients.
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Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are coming off a 52 win season last year and the rest of the AL East has arguably gotten better. Their Ace, LHP John Means, ended a solid season with a 1.03 WHIP and a 3.62 ERA but also owned a .240 BABIP and 4.62 FIP, signs that he was fortunate to have the numbers that he did. After Means, there are a bunch of question marks in the rotation. Baltimore also has done nothing to improve their bullpen, one that finished 31st in WHIP and xFIP. They even lost some of their relievers. The offense will be the strength of this team, highlighted by DH Trey Mancini, 1B Ryan Mountcastle and CF Cedric Mullins. The O’s also brought in 2B Rougned Odor and will have their top prospect C Adley Rutchman enter the league this season. Baltimore is banking on their farm system to make them better, as they should, this season but that will be a tall task in the best division in baseball with 4 potential playoff teams in front of them. I am expecting the offense to take a step forward but the pitching is going to struggle again in this division. Look for the O’s to have a similar season as last year and maybe 5 wins better but well take Under 62.5 -115 for their win total this season in the gauntlet of the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter the 2022 season after winning the AL East with 100 wins a year ago and have lost DH Nelson Cruz (who didn’t perform up to expectations after trading for him at the deadline), SP Michael Wacha and RP Collin McHugh. However, the additions of former Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, and RP Brooks Raley will offset their losses and, in my opinion, make them even better. The addition of Kluber is huge, even if he doesn’t throw a pitch this season. His experience alone is a great addition to the clubhouse with a plethora of young pitchers looking for a brain to pick after a postseason without a veteran, i.e. Charlie Morton, which clearly hurt them and sent them home early. We’re talking about a starting rotation who finished in the top 10 in WHIP and FIP with 4 rookie pitchers. The bullpen was even better, finishing in the top 5 in almost every major stat, including WHIP and xFIP. It is also worth mentioning that Tampa’s arms were hit hard with injuries last season and will have more depth this season getting most of those guys back. Their offense isn’t flooded with a bunch of big name guys but finished the season by scoring the 2nd most runs in the MLB and owning the 10th best wOBA in the league. With 2 stars in the making, LF Randy Arozarena and SS Wander Franco, leading off the lineup and everyone returning from last years lineup while the talent from one of the best farm systems will continue to see prospects emerge into the clubhouse this season, such as INF Taylor Walls and INF/OF Vidal Brujan, look for the Rays to have a similar season as they did last season. I am not saying they should win the division, but they very well could again and they are very underpriced in the market. Take Rays Over 89.5 -110 for their win total and to win the AL East +320.
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