Well the Yankees disappointed against Boston (again), the Tigers streak came to an end and like one of my sharp premium customers predicted, the Giants had a let-down game against a Pittsburgh team with more fire. We’re 17-10 in baseball this week, still good, but needless to say I’m out for some vengeance today. I also have a few UFC plays at the bottom of this article to cover your MMA betting desires. Onto the picks!
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MLB Picks
Nationals -2.5 (+120), 2 units: Why is this plus money juice so low even though it’s a wager on the Nationals by significant margin? Because unless we’re warped into an alternate universe, which feels like it actually happens often in MLB, this is an extremely uneven matchup between the Nationals and Orioles. Without getting into the numbers– that’s something you can do if you don’t believe me– Baltimore’s Matt Harvey probably shouldn’t even be in the majors anymore. He’s a great example of how thin the Orioles rotation really is; they just keep starting these awful pitchers and oddly, they don’t experiment very often with their up and comers. That’s not an issue for Washington. After getting shockingly blasted by the home team last night, the Nationals should be (emphasis on should) locked in today and ready for an offensive explosion. We know how dangerous their lineup can be and against Matt Harvey, there’s little reason to believe they won’t experience positive regression today. On the other end, the Nats will start Max Scherzer. Enough said. If this isn’t a blowout, it’s likely I’ll need a break from betting baseball.
Rangers/Astros NRFI (no run in 1st inning, -110), 1 unit and
Blue Jays/Mets NRFI (-110), 1 unit: Two games with above-average pitchers and three of the throwers are dying for some positive regression. Gibson (TX), Valdez (HOU), and Walker (NYM) all got blasted in their last starts in atypical fashion and these games set up well for a little redemption. I expect all these throwers to come out commanding and I like how there’s limited juice in these lines. I lean the unders in both of these contests as well, but since there’s plenty of offense between these four ballclubs, especially when they settle in, I see less value in the total. Give me the NRFIs.
Angels (+106), 1.5 units: Jose Berrios (MIN- 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 114.2 innings) is starting to experience some negative regression but a lot of that has been bad luck. His growing BABIP is a concern but he still has generally good xERA (4.12) and xFIP (3.53) numbers and he’s easily been Minnesota’s most consistent starter this season. While we expect some improvement from him today, the Twins offense has also gotten rather lucky lately. Even with Cruz getting traded to Tampa and the host of injuries the Twins are managing, they’re finding opportunities to score. I think that may take a hit today (no reverse pun intended). The Angels offense is better in just about every category and Patrick Sandoval (3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 63 innings) has the fresher arm. Sandoval, like Berrios, doesn’t do anything terribly impressive but his profile indicates how good he is in general at limiting production from good lineups. Since the break the LAA offense has produced less than 4 runs per game. Eventually that’ll regress back to the mean and I think this might be an unfortunate spot for Berrios and a poor Minnesota rotation (with a team 4.95 ERA that ranks near the bottom of MLB). I’m on the halos for plus money!
UFC Picks
Jordan Williams by TKO (+190), 1 unit: I fondly remember a time where Mickey Gall really seemed like the future of the UFC’s welterweight class. Part of that perception remains true; Gall doesn’t go down easy, he’s young, and he has plenty of potential. Of course half the reason I thought Gall had so much upside was because of how he handily embarrassed CM Punk 5 years ago– not exactly a great indicator of any fighter’s potential. Insert Jordan Williams. Williams lost in his UFC debut after allowing Nassourdine Imavov to take him down time and time again, but Imavov is a thicker fighter and more physical prowess than Gall. Mickey loves taking the fight to the ground and has never lost when he has forced a takedown, but I’m not too worried about that here. Williams has a significant striking advantage and Gall will feel like a step-down in competition compared to Imavov. With Williams undoubtedly training to defend takedowns better and ready to redeem his first showing on a UFC card, I love “Bomaye” Williams to get a TKO victory on Saturday. Seven out of his nine wins have come by KO/TKO– let’s make it 8 tonight.
Miranda Maverick (-160), 1.6 units: Maycee Barber is a fighter I’ve been rooting for since her debut. In solo sports it’s easy to get behind an athlete because you share some sort of bias about them– you like their edge, their personality, their hype, you see yourself in them, or maybe you even find them attractive. These are all normal psychological reasons behind inherent bias and I get it, but they’re not great reasons to handicap a sport. At 24, Miranda Maverick has now won 5 fights in a row and seems to have surpassed Barber as the real future of the UFC’s flyweight division. She can beat you in a variety of ways and has a ton of experience under her belt, from her time with Invicta to her most recent stint now with the UFC. Maycee has a slight 2″ height advantage but I don’t think that’ll show tonight. Barber has a strange, almost tree-like fighting stance that leaves her vulnerable to attacks. We saw it in her surprising loss to Roxanne Modafferi and we saw it most recently against Alexa Grasso in Barber’s unanimous decision loss. Maverick is too skilled and too dynamic to not take advantage. Unless there’s something wildly different in Barber’s defense, I think Maverick could dominate this fight for 3 rounds or really send “the Future” reeling into irrelevance with a mid-fight TKO. I see this being Maverick’s official “come out party” after another big win.
TJ Dillashaw (+160), 1 unit: The sharps are all over Cory Sandhagen in this one and for good reason. He’s the younger fighter with a more impressive resume, especially recently, and he has a significant size advantage in this fight. Perhaps the TJ Dillashaw brand earns him a little more respect than he deserves so for those of you who like Sandhagen in this contest, I would go for a win within distance. It’s better value and it makes sense in a 5 round fight. All that said, I’m still going with TJ. Sandhagen brings a great arsenal to this fight, like he always does, and he’s capable of beating you by submission or TKO or by decision on any night. He’s long, rangy, and precise. But has he ever faced a fighter like TJ before? I don’t think so. Henry Cejudo is the only other fighter who compares to TJ’s tank and constancy. Few fighters train like TJ (and in that way he may be certifiably insane), and even fewer fighters can hang with how much energy he brings into every fight. After a long layoff due to suspension, this is about legacy for Dillashaw. Sandhagen is expecting to win this fight, as he should, but I think that’ll create some unexpected and unfortunate results for him. While all this time off could spell a colder and more lackadaisical fighter, I think it’ll mean the opposite for Dillashaw. The two-time bantamweight king should come out with even more variety and energy than ever and I think it’ll catch Sandhagen by surprise. I’ll take the dynamic dog for 1 unit in the main event.
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