We have a great slate of afternoon games today to choose from. I have found value to begin this season on No Runs First Inning (NRFI) and First 5 Innings totals. Today, I will be sticking with NRFI.
Astros @ Rangers – 2:05 pm ET – NRFI -118 1U
The Astros are sending Justin Verlander to the mound to start today’s game. He’s been stellar so far this year in the first inning allowing 1 hit, 1 walk, to go along with 4 strikeouts. He has yet to allow a run and opposing hitters are batting .111. This Rangers lineup also hasn’t been great to start off the year. Cole Kalhoun, Marcus Semien, and Cory Seager are all under .250 season averages and have 1 home run combined.
The Rangers will send Martin Perez out today for his third start of the season. He has been pretty solid in the first inning so far. He’s allowed 2 hits to go along with 2 strikeouts. He has allowed 1 run in 3 innings of work, but hitters are only batting .200 against him in the first inning. Chas McCormick, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman are always threats to put one in the bleachers, but outside of McCormick none of them are hitting particularly well in the first inning or against lefties.
I like the value here at -118. Take the NRFI or U0.5 R 1 inning.
Guardians @ Angels – 4:07 pm ET – NRFI +100 1U
The Guardians will tap Cal Quantrill to get the start against the Angels. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so he will rely on his sinker, slider, and cutter to generate ground balls. His ground ball to fly ball split is pretty even the first time through the order. He has yet to give up a home run the first or second time through the order as well. Hitters are batting .100 against him with 1 hit and 1 walk in 3 innings of work. Ohtani and Trout are always dangerous at the top of the order, but I think Cal can get the job done here.
The Angels send out Reid Detmers. The lefty has struggled at times. He has given up 1 run on 1 hit in the first inning through 3 innings of work, along with 3 walks. He has countered that with 6 strikeouts in those 3 innings however. The only scary bat in the top 3 of this Guardians lineup is Jose Ramirez. He has not hit lefties particularly well to start this season though, so I think Detmers can get around him.
There were fireworks last night as both teams put up 2 runs in the first inning against these two teams best pitchers. As long as the walks are kept to a minimum, I don’t think that happens here again this afternoon. Take NRFI +100 or U0.5 R 1 inning.
