Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals 4:10 PM ET
For today’s free play we’re targeting a pitcher prop in the Astros vs Royals game.
Luis Garcia is on tap to start for the Astros today. He comes into this game with a 3-3 record, 3.14 ERA, with 51 strikeouts on the season. The Astros are 3-2 in his 5 road starts this season, but averaging only 2.2 runs of support in those starts. Luckily for us the run support doesn’t really matter. What matters for us is the 5 strikeouts per game on average in those road starts.
The Royals are averaging the seventh lowest strikeouts per game as a team on the season. However, in the past three games they are the third worst team averaging 10.67 strikeouts per game. Jose Urquidy who only averages 6 strikeouts per 9 innings put up 6 against the Royals in just 6 innings. I think we see another similar performance here as Urquidy and Garcia are similar pitchers. Garcia gives us a little more velocity though which should play well here.
Garcia has 25 strikeouts in 25 road innings over those 5 starts with a strikeout percentage of 23.6%. With the exception of Seattle, those road starts have come against pretty decent competition (Arizona, Toronto, Minnesota, and Boston). Overall in May he’s boasting a 10.67 K/9 and 27.8% strikeout rate.
I think we get at least 5 to 6 innings out of Garcia here today against a sub-par lineup that’s struggling and striking out a lot. Loving the value here on this play. Best of luck if you tail and let’s get it done!
Luis Garcia O4.5 Ks +105 1U
