Rough start for me in the MLB so far. I’ve been going against the early season under trend too often and haven’t gotten the key hits needed with runners in scoring position. That being said good offenses don’t need those hits to push games over, and so far we have not seen much good offense.
Tylor Megill takes the bump for the Mets today, and he was electric in his first start going 5 IP against the Nats, giving up 3 hits with 6K and 0 BB. Now the Phillies lineup isn’t the Nats, but I think Tylor is going to continue the early season dominance. His underlying metrics showcase a pitcher with the possibility to be elite. His numbers last year showcased a 3.92 xFIP and 9.94 K/9. Put that together with a 3.5K/BB ratio and an elite fastball and you have yourself an ace in the making. His numbers in AA last year were almost video game numbers. He will need to learn to keep the ball in the yard better to become that ace. His 18.8 HR/FB% last year surely will come down. He did not have a great showing in his one appearance vs Philly last year giving up 4 runs in 4.2
Zach Wheeler is already an ace and he dominated the Mets last year especially late in the season. He went 3-1 against New York and posted a 2.11 ERA over 5 starts. The concern here is he hasn’t thrown in a game yet this spring after dealing with shoulder soreness this winter and then an illness in camp. I’m not worried about the outing other than the fact that it will be short. Likely 60-70 pitches.
It’s early yet in the season, but I think both of these bullpens are solid (last night’s Mets showing excluded.) Edwin Diaz is still out on the bereavement list. The Phils will need to get some solid innings to back up Wheeler and should be able to do so.
The wind will be blowing in and across from left tonight. Unless Megill gets touched up early for some long balls by Harper and Schwarber I think this game stays under the number.
Mets/Phillies Under 8.5 1.5 Units
