Hasn’t been a stellar start to baseball season for me. 25-28-1 is where we sit so far. Trying to get back on the good side today. You can get all my plays here at TheOddsbreakers.com for $50 a month. That includes MLB going on now, as well as Horse Racing (Derby is coming!), NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB.
Looking at Friday plays the first game that jumped out at me was the Brewers (+104) vs the Phillies (-124) O/U 8. Taking the bump are Freddy Peralta for the Crew and Ranger Suarez for the Phils. Both pitchers are very similar. They both feature a ++ Fastball (Or sinker in Ranger’s case) and a dangerous slider. Freddy Peralta’s fastball was the 7th best pitch in baseball according to statcast in 2021. and Suarez’s sinker was the 9th best. So far neither has pitched well. Suarez is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.96 WHIP over 7.2 IP with 5 Ks and 4 BBs. Freddy Peralta on the flip side has a 11.57 ERA, a 2.29 WHIP over 7 IP with 10 Ks and 6 BBs. The problem for both is finding the plate and then getting hit hard when forced to pitch across it. Currently BABIP against for Peralta is a crazy .474 and his LOB% is only 51.3%. While neither of these trends will continue I trust Freddy to get back on track quicker simply do to his advantage in keeping the ball out of play by striking guys out. His xFIP even with all the issues is only at 3.95, Suarez sits at 4.69.
The Phillies offense has been the better of the two so far early this season, and with Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto and Castellanos that is to be expected. They have already made a trip to Coors, so that does factor in some. Milwaukee hasn’t gotten their boppers going yet, and that is concerning, however no one has really gotten going yet outside of Vlad Jr, and a few others.
For me this is all about Peralta getting back on track. He strikes out better than 12 Per 9 innings and has a 3/1K/BB ratio for his career. With that 7th best pitch in baseball he won’t be struggling for long. Plus money Peralta, and a chance to do it full game with Milwaukee’s superior bullpen if they are behind is great. He won’t be getting odds like this much longer so lets take advantage now.
Brewers +104 1 Unit
Alternate Run Line Brewers -1.5 +165 – 1 Unit
