MLB Free Premium Picks and Analysis for Friday July 2nd

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The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati where they will they will open up a three-game set with the Reds Friday night. In the season series, each team has won three meetings. Chicago dropped their sixth straight game as they were swept in Milwaukee by the NL Central-leading Brewers.  Righty Alec Mills is will make his 17th appearance and fifth start of the year for the Cubs. He comes in 3-1 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP across 37 innings of work this season. Veteran righty Sonny Gray is on the mound to make his 11th start of the year for the Reds in this contest. He comes in 1-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 50 innings of work on the year. I love this pitching matchup.  Sonny Gray has pitched well at home and has been impressive overall in the past 2 months.  Alec Mills, however, is horrible on the road owning a 7.40 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 20.2 innings pitched this season.

In the past month, Cincinnati owns the 4th best wOBA vs righties in the league while the Cubbies rank 29th in that span.  In addition to that, the Reds are scoring a 2nd best 3.60 runs in the first 5 innings at home this season whereas the Cubs are scoring just over 2 runs on the road.

Take the Reds F5 -0.5 (4% Premium Pick)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays play the first game of a three-game series at Toronto’s temporary home of Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday. Rays rookie right-hander Luis Patino will get the ball in game 1.  The prize from the Blake Snell trade owns a 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season.  Blue Jays will throw out another rookie, righty Alek Manoah, who has a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 29.2 innings pitched this season

In the past month, the Blue Jays own the 3rd best wOBA vs righties in the league and they have been even better overall in the past week.  Tampa Bay’s bats have cooled off this summer as they are hitting .234 in the past 30 days which is good for 24th in the MLB.  The Rays bullpen has been excellent all season and the Jays pen has been great as of late.  The Blue Jays lead the league with 3.83 runs in the first 5 innings at home and they will be facing a team that usually scores most of their runs in the 2nd half of the game.

Take the Blue Jays F5 -130 (3% Premium Pick)

The Baltimore Orioles are on the road as they kick off a three-game set with the Los Angeles Angels Friday night. Baltimore struggled for most of June but capped the month by sweeping a three-game set from Houston on the road after prevailing Wednesday. Lefty Keegan Akin is on the mound for the Orioles in this contest as he makes his 11th appearance and seventh start of the year. He comes in 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 38 innings of action on the season.  Righty Griffin Canning gets the nod for the Angels and will be making his 13th start of the season. He comes with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 60 innings of work.

The Angels lead the league in wOBA and homeruns vs lefties in the past month while the Orioles are in the bottom 3rd of the MLB.  The halos average 3.10 runs at home in the first 5 innings while their opposition averages almost one run less at 2.23 on the road.

Take the Angels F5 -0.5 (2% Premium Pick)

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