After digging into these two teams, wow, are they similar. Every game is a must win for both teams pretty much from here on out as the postseason race is heating up. SF’s Gausman has been getting back to form after a post-All-Star break regression while OAK’s Manaea has not looked good in his L3 outings, giving up ER’s of 7/3/5 respectively. SF ranks 11th in BA vs LHP while OAK ranks 23rd vs RHP according to Fangraphs. There’s a few reasons to like SF in this matchup.
On top of Manaea’s disappointing recent outings, SF is the 3rd best road team, the best in team in MLB off a loss, and also owns the best RL record in baseball. What worries me is Manaea has faced this lineup earlier in the season and did well. Not to mention OAK is the 6th best home team in baseball. That had me looking at the under in this game. But with Manaea getting blasted lately and a heavy majority of the bets/ money on it, that scares me off a full play to the under. This late in the season, the trends are your friends. I can’t deny that we have a good road team, best off a loss, in a heated rivalry with one of their aces on the mound. I have to respect the numbers here, and they’re telling me SF is the right side and to hit the SF RL -1.5. Being a cross town rivalry, I’m looking to split the bets just in case OAK doesn’t go down easy at home.
SF RL-1.5 (+125) 1u/ SF ML (-122) 1u
