Happy Opening Day everyone! After all the spring training lead up and position battles the real thing is finally here. Yes I know the games in Seoul counted, but everyone knows this is the real start of the MLB season.
I am back for another six months of MLB handicapping and we are going start off by taking a look at the Twins visiting the Royals at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is at 3:10 PM
Current Line Twins -120, Royals +100. Over/Under is 8 Juiced to the Over at -120
The pitching match-up features Pablo Lopez taking the mound for the Twins against Cole Ragans of the Royals. Ragans started 2023 in the bullpen for the Rangers before being traded for Aroldis Chapman. After the trade he made 12 starts for the Royals going 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 71.2 IP. The strikeout stuff is nasty as he has a ++Changeup and a 10.59 K/9 in 2023. His biggest issue is limiting the walks, which he did as a starter last year and the question for him is if he can maintain that level of control. Pablo Lopez on the other side also has the big time strikeout stuff as he also has over 10 K/9, with much better control featuring an over 4.5K/BB ratio. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA and a 3.28 xFIP.
The Royals added Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier to a lineup that was 23rd in MLB in runs scored and 24th in OPS in 2023. They have Bobby Witt Jr. who is the most exciting player in baseball not named Acuna and a now healthy bopper Vinnie Pasquantino ready to go for the season. The Twins were 10th in runs scored last year and 7th in OPS, led by rookie sensation Royce Lewis who smacked 15 Home Runs in only 236 plate appearances. The signed Carlos Santana to provide some stability at 1B.
The Cole Ragans love is real and I certainly think he could be an Ace in this league if he can gather his control, but he also gives up a a fair amount of hard contact. Lopez keeps the ball on the ground better and limits that hard contact more. Both pitchers struggled this spring, but with the typical tinkering involved I don’t take much of that into account early in the season. For me the handicap with two solid pitchers comes down to the offenses, and at this price I think the Twins ability to put up runs is better suited to come away with a win on opening day.
I’m on Minnesota.
Twins -120, 1 Unit.
