After a 4 day break, I’m recharged and ready to roll for Opening Day! I’m kicking it off with 2 plays here on Thursday, each of which are plus-money. If you’d like to receive a text when I release any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+110) vs Pirates–3:15 PM CT
Adam Wainwright will take the hill for St. Louis today, and while I know he’s now 40, he has a phenomenal track record pitching at Busch Stadium. Last season, he recorded a 2.74 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home in 128.1 IP, all while allowing less than 1 HR/9. Against the Pirates last year, he allowed just 1 run(!!) across 4 starts and averaged 7.5 IP per start. Aside from adding Daniel Vogelbach, the Pirates lineup didn’t get better this offseason; when you pair Wainwright’s experience with the fact he has a great track record in this spot, I like him to have a vintage start today. Pirates SP JT Brubaker allowed 2.5 HR/9 away from home last season and recorded an unimpressive 5.15 FIP. Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina all have an OPS above 1.000 in their past appearances against Brubaker. The Cardinals were somewhat of a disappointment last year, but I think their lineup is going to ramp it up in this 2022 campaign. The Cardinals bullpen needs to show improvement this year, but I don’t have a hard time trusting them in this matchup given Pittsburgh will almost assuredly finish in the bottom third of the league in bullpen ERA and WHIP. I think the Cardinals take care of business today, and I love that we’re getting this at a plus price.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(+108) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
I know that sentiment on the Angels is higher than usual after they finally adding some pitching this offseason, but I’m taking the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach. While Shoehei Ohtani is a tough matchup for any opposing lineup, the Astros have actually handled him well in the past. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez all have an OPS at or above 1.000 against Ohtani, and that doesn’t even include the fact that Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Yuli Gurriel are tough outs for any pitcher. We also saw Ohtani struggle with control at the beginning of last season, walking 19 batters in his first 4 starts. The pressure is squarely on Ohtani in this spot, and while he’ll be able to mow down a lot of lineups this season, I don’t believe that to be true against a lineup built like Houston’s. Astros SP Framber Valdez is coming off a really good 2021 campaign, and he actually pitched much better on the road than at home last season(2.88 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9). Mike Trout and Ohtani are a combined 2-for-22 against Valdez, and while Anthony Rendon presents a tough matchup, I think Valdez can take care of the rest of this Angels lineup. While the Angels should be improved in their bullpen, I’m going to need to see results before changing my opinion on a unit that was one of the worst in baseball last season. I’m very inclined to trust a team built like Houston as underdogs here on Opening Day; I think this is one of the few lineups in baseball that can go toe-to-toe with an ace like Ohtani.
