Marlins/Mets first 5 under 3.5 (-120), 1.5 units: The Mets bats haven’t exactly lived up to their hype just yet. Of course they’ve had less of a season than other teams, but currently they’re hitting at a .246 average. Pedestrian, at best. Miami’s bats have looked even worse– hitting at only a .210 average. They’ve also only scored 5 total runs in their last 4 games– it doesn’t get much worse than that. Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins, while the Mets roll out deGrom for his second start of the season. A play on deGrom to control a Marlins’ team in the first 5 is an obvious handicap and one that’s tough to dispute. It often seems deGrom solely holds up his team, only to be constantly let-down by inferior relief play and an inconsistent lineup. The Mets really need to figure that out so the former Cy Young winner can feel what it’s like to play for a team that’s a major playoff contender. He deserves it. Trevor Rogers didn’t have a great outing in his first start, but it was serviceable. He took a loss, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and 4 walks over four innings. On the flip side, we saw some of the potential and power that Rogers can bring. The 23 year old showed off 95.6 mph four-seam fastball velocity and struck out 6 Cardinals hitters. He also maintained a respectable 3.16 FIP. Rogers certainly has upside and the Mets don’t scare me when the hold the wooden stick. They know deGrom will limit their offense–as if there’s any to speak of– and should roll out a cautious and intelligent arsenal behind Rogers to slow down New York. Give me the under in the first 5.
Brewers win first 5 innings (-110), 1.5 units: Adrian Houser (MIL) faces off against Carlos Martinez (STL) in this mid afternoon battle between the Brewers and Cards. I’m not deterred by Houser’s first outing. The Twins will get the best of a lot of good pitchers this year and it was no different for the 28 year old right-hander last Sunday. Houser gave up 2 runs on 4 hits over five innings, not bad, and it was a homerun that sent Houser off the mound. I’m actually pretty impressed by that performance, especially from what we’ve seen from the Minnesota offense as of late (the Twins own a .291 average in their last 3 games). This bet is more about the Milwaukee bats, though. The Brewers expect more out of their offense. Keston Hiura was expected to have a big season for the Brewers and so far he’s hitting at a dispicable .043 thru the first 5 games of the season. In a down 2020 year, the young power hitter still slammed 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 59 games. He’s part of an underperforming Brewers team averaging only 2.86 runs per game to this point. Positive regression is on the way. Luckily, St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez and his very hittable repertoire should be a great anecdote. The 29 year old had a pretty stellar career before 2020, where he displayed a startling 3 mph drop in four-seam velocity and posted a 9.90 ERA and 5.86 FIP over 5 games. His first game in 2021 didn’t show much improvement. Although his power somewhat returned (94.4 mph vFA), Martinez permitted 4 runs on 4 hits, including a homerun, and finished with a 7.20 ERA. The Reds lead MLB in batting average so far and they proved a worthy contender, but that’s still not a good sign for all the promise Martinez showed in the past. His command is shaky at best and this feels like a perfect opportunity for the Brewers’ bats to gain some steam. I’m on Milwaukee, at least in the first 5 innings, against a very hittable Martinez on the mound.
Rockies win (+155), 1 unit: This is a good opportunity for another struggling offense to get right. McMahon, Blackmon, Story, Dahl– the Rockies certainly have good hitters. Sending Nolan Arenado to St. Louis didn’t help any (and he’s already proving his worth there), but Colorado’s bats have more than enough firepower to get the job done. Unfortunately, those same names made the 35 year old Johnny Cueto look like an All-Star in their first outing against the Giants. Cueto dominated the Rockies, allowing only 1 run on 4 hits over 8.2 innings. He also struck out 7. San Francisco won’t enjoy the same command tonight. Logan Webb gets his second start for the Giants Saturday and if his first showing was any indication, Colorado can feel more confident about their chances in game 2. Webb made the Mariners, a team infamous for their lackluster offense, look like the 2020 Dodgers. Seattle hit 7 balls and scored 3 runs on Webb, including one homer and 2 deep whacks in just over five innings. In 2 games played, Colorado’s Chi Chi Gonzalez has looked really good. He’s allowed only 5 hits over 8 innings and owns a solid 3.36 FIP, but it was his outing against LAD that has onlookers intrigued. Chi Chi was already getting hype after an excellent spring training and he flexed in his first chance against an elite unit, permitting no runs over 3 innings against the reigning champs. The Giants’ current bats have historically hit only .274 against Chi Chi, while the Rockies have averaged .300 against Webb. This should be a good opening for Colorado’s power and if we get another good showing from Chi Chi, he should be able to hold off a questionable Rockies’ bullpen. I’m on the dog.
Red Sox/Orioles over 9.5 (-110), 2 units: Predictably, the Orioles bats have fallen off quite a bit. Scoring only 9 runs in their last 4 games and a batting average down to .219, Baltimore better find their groove quick if they want to keep pace. They certainly can’t count on their pitching. Last time these two throwers faced off, the Orioles clobbered Garrett Richards, scoring 6 runs in just two innings. Zimmerman did an okay job, permitting 3 runs over six innings and, at that point in the game, really just needed to hold off Boston’s cold bats. He earned a 0.83 WHIP for that performance. Boston’s bats aren’t all that frigid anymore. Since getting swept by the Orioles in their first 3 games, the Red Sox have secured 4 victories in a row and they’re averaging 8.25 runs per game in that span, boosting their batting average to 5th overall in MLB. The wind is down to 5 mph in Baltimore today and the humidity is high. The Orioles bats need a boost and they get a great pitching setup to get it done. The Red Sox bats are white hot. So, if my calculations are correct… 1+1+1=3… and that equals an over bet for this guy. High 5.
