We’re over 2 weeks into MLB and after plenty of surprises, we’re holding strong with a 20-16 overall record (55.5%). Expect some positive regression as the true potential and identities of these ballclubs becomes more glaring. Happy Monday!
Red Sox (+130), 1.5 units: Hell yea, I’ll take some plus money on the Red Sox. This is a wager more about Boston’s offense, not the pitching matchup today, although I do think J.A. Happ is getting a little too much love. The Red Sox are white-hot right now. After losing three straight games at Fenway Park against the Orioles to open up the season, the Red Sox have won 6 in a row since then. During that winning span, they’ve averaged an incredible 9 runs per game. Through 9 games, they have a +15 run differential, which is tough to do after only scoring 5 runs in their first 3 games, and they’re now 3rd overall in slugging and batting average in MLB. Martin Perez gets the nod for Boston today and he’s had a serviceable 2021 thus far. The 30 year old leftie has a solid .255 FIP, though he did allow 3 earned runs on 5 hits through six innings in his first outing. The Rays were in need of a win and came out hotter than usual last Tuesday against Perez, so I don’t feel that bad about his performance. Perez’s arm looked healthy and despite allowing a few runs, his command was steady. Minnesota’s J.A. Happ played really well in his first start against Detroit. The 38 year old journeyman allowed 1 run in four innings, securing a 2.25 ERA, although his velocity has experienced a noticeable dip. The 1x All-Star has held up against the test of time, but not long ago in 2019, Happ allowed a league-leading 34 home runs and posted one of the worst ERAs of his career. Fans in the Bronx weren’t sad to see him go. I worry a little about the splits between these teams against lefties– the Twins are easily better in slugging and batting average– and this spot certainly favors Minnesota. They’re at home and need to win after two bad losses to Seattle. On top of that, Happ has had plenty of success against the Red Sox in the past. Still, despite all those angles, I’ve watched the Red Sox destroy good pitching on the Rays and underrated pitchers for the O’s. They’re confident and clearly have no issue punking teams on the road. If Perez can hold up through the first half, and he’s certainly capable, the Twins might get caught in a boat-race they can’t win. It’s a sloppy and windy day in Minnesota, so this should be a game won by clear-minded hitters who can find a better ball. I’m on Boston.
Yankees -1.5 (-125), 2 units: I’m building off yesterday’s post here and taking another spot on the Yankees. Like I said in Sunday’s article, this is what the Yankees do. They look awful, don’t capitalize on opportunities, they have questionable pitching and despite their talent, they go on insane cold streaks. Until they don’t. Robbie Ray makes his first start for the Blue Jays in 2021 today. Ray had his season delayed because of a bruised elbow so I can’t help but be concerned about his health and endurance on the mound. And it’s not like Ray has been a great pitcher as of late. After a solid 2017 and 2018, Ray has really struggled in recent seasons, displaying sub-optimal ERAs and allowing a ton of homeruns. He’ll go up against Gerrit Cole, who again is posting fantastic numbers and may be the most consistently dominant pitcher not named deGrom in MLB right now. There’s no reason why the Yankees shouldn’t cover this run-line bet.
Brewers win (-125), 2 units: This is a pretty square pick and I’m not apologizing for it. The Brewers found their bats recently but they’ve been winning thanks to some terrific pitching. Freddy Peralta absolutely dominated the Cubs over five innings last Tuesday. When Peralta or one of their other aces can perform in such commanding fashion, it’s really hard to beat Milwaukee. Full of young dynamic talent, the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in MLB. Chicago’s Adbert Alzolay, on the other hand, got rocked by the Brewers in his last outing, permitting four runs over five innings. Milwaukee’s offense didn’t find any groove until recently and even if they’re not blasting out big hits again Monday, I don’t think it’ll matter. The Cubs have the worst batting average in MLB and after getting whooped by the Pirates, Chicago’s outlook is rather bleak these days. I’d be shocked if they won against this Brewers’ arsenal.
Lean, Royals (+105): This is a good bounce-back spot for Brady Singer, who got clobbered in his first start for Kansas City but had a promising rookie year. In 2020, the 6’5″ 24 year old owned a solid 4.06 ERA and a really impressive .260 BAPIB. He’s due for some positive regression and the Royals are in a good spot at home off an unexpected day of rest. The Angels got obliterated in their last contest but the unplanned day off may have cooled their fire. I don’t trust the very average Alex Cobb here, either. Just a lean since it’s more of an observation game for me, but I think the Royals grab the win.
