Well I opted out of writing a free play article on MLB yesterday and I’m glad I did! What a crazy day to bet. A TON of favorites got pummeled (Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Rays), including some abysmal performances by ace pitchers. Although it can’t be expected in totality–each game is its own entity– you can expect at least some regression to the mean today. I hope to capitalize on that. Here are my Wednesday picks!
NYY/TOR- Will There be a Run Scored in the 1st Inning? NO (+105), 1 unit and Blue Jays win the first 5 innings (+105), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. I’m getting plus money for no 1st inning runs? Only one Yankees game has had a run scored in the first inning so far this year. I’ll take it. The Yankees’ new high-profile pitcher Corey Kluber hasn’t had the start to the 2021 season that he envisioned. His velocity is down, he’s already allowed multiple homeruns, his ERA sits at a bleak .568 and in his last outing, and he allowed 5 runs in just 2.1 innings. Is something still wrong with Kluber? Maybe. I read a great article on SB Nation that talks about his recent injuries– a fractured forearm and torn teres major muscle, which inhibited both his 2019 and 2020 seasons. In that sense, and I don’t know what more we were all expecting, it’s understandable that the guy isn’t off to a soaring start. The SB Nation article outlined what we are not appropriately perceiving and Yankees’ fans certainly aren’t hoping for, that “if you’re hanging on the ‘it’s early and he’s always been a slow starter’ points, you’re referencing the recent Cy Young Award winner who was young and healthy. The current subject under discussion is a 35-year-old coming off two serious arm injuries and 43 subpar innings across three years.” This is reality for Kluber and the Yankees, and it’s why I have to take the Blue Jays in the first 5 innings. Toronto is finding their bats lately, ranking 13th overall now with 4.45 runs per game, and as the innings go on, Kluber’s arm should experience the same exhaustion and regression as we saw in his first two starts. Cheers to the guy– let’s hope the body repairs itself over time and we see a more youthful Kluber as the season goes on. That being said, I’ll hedge that angle and put a bet on the Yankees/Blue Jays not scoring at all in the 1st inning. Despite Kluber’s issues, he hasn’t allowed a point in his 2 starts in the first inning of play. Ross Stripling is on the dirt for Toronto today and he’s certainly due for some improvement, too. He’s thrown for an abysmal 7.56 ERA in 2 showings. Expect Kluber and Stripling to play over their heads, at least for the first 6 outs.
Brewers (-164), 2 units: This is a straight play on Corbin Burnes and a straight fade on Jake Arrieta. Burnes has been ablaze thus far for Milwaukee. The 26 year old right hander all but shut out the Cardinals in his last outing, one of the more impressive offensive teams thus far in MLB, and in 2 games he owns a 0.73 ERA and 1.44 FIP. Maybe what’s more impressive is the significant increase in velocity on his four-seam curve ball. The 2021 version of Burnes is clocking in nearly a full 2 mph greater than his 2020 average at 97.7 mph. The Cubs have the worst batting average in MLB and score the fewest runs per game– how are they going to hit THIS version of Burnes? This is a great setup for Corbin. Contrarily, I love fading Arrieta in spots like this. Under mounted pressure Arietta has a history of getting rocked and it’s likely he’ll have to hone a rare command today with Burnes looming in the shadows. Arietta’s numbers so far are great, a 2.25 ERA over 2 games, but you can expect the 35 year old to devolve as the season progresses. We’ve seen it before. Is it possible that he blanks the Brewers today? Sure. But I’ll need a bigger sample size to trust Arietta in the long-term. For now, I’ll go with the command and electric velocity of Burnes, not to mention the plenty more-able hitters in Milwaukee’s lineup.
Indians/White Sox under 7.5 (-120), 1.5 units: Cleveland and Chicago, although far from being bad hitting teams, aren’t exactly juggernauts on offense. Cleveland unders have now hit 4 games in a row and the 2 games in this series, which Chicago’s weather can’t be helping, have been much nicer to the guys on the mound. That sets up really well for two starters who have had excellent starts to their 2021 seasons. Zach Plesac enters this game playing 13 innings over 2 games, allowing only 9 hits, no homeruns, and flexing a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The 26 year old flubs at times and his velocity isn’t the scariest for a young thrower, but Plesac’s command has been as consistent as it gets in his 3 year career. Carlos Rodon was held out of his second starting job due to an illness, but he’s back after a solid 5 innings in his first start, boasting a 0.00 ERA (you love to see it) and only 2 hits against the Mariners on April 5th. This line is getting the juice it deserves– the wind is a-blowin’ again in the White City and this feels like another slowly forming game with 2 teams struggling to get on base. I’m on the under.
Dodgers -1.5 (-120), 2 units: It’s the squarest pick in baseball but so what? You still win money off it! One of my few MLB wagers and angles that I actually was right on yesterday was my play on the Dodgers -1.5. Trevor Bauer looked electric and man, those Dodgers bats cannot be stopped right now. Rated #1 in many offensive categories and with even better starting pitchers, not to mention a more experienced bullpen this year, LAD is already (clearly) the best team in baseball. Dustin May gets the nod for the home team after a nice opener against the Athletics, where he allowed only 2 hits in six innings, holding Oakland scoreless. The young stud is only getting better. He showed off a four-seam fastball that got very close to the 100 mph mark and a 98.6 mph sinker curve in his first start. Colorado has really struggled to find their bats lately and away from Coors field, they’ve only scored 4 runs in their last 4 games (and contributed a big goose egg in their last 2 games). Six-year starter Jon Gray has had a very nice start to his 2021, including a 6.2 inning no-hitter against the D-Backs, but this is quite the level-up in competition. Dodgers bats have had no issue hitting Gray in the past and they won’t tonight either. Maybe at Coors, not in SoCal. Square, boring, don’t care– Dodgers run line baby.
