The absurd week in MLB continues, but we’re still hitting at 58% overall. Onto Thursday, cuz that’s allllll we can do is move on!
Mets/Phillies Run in 1st Inning? No (-150), 1.5 units: Well with the way this season is going, with the best pitcher in baseball on the mound for the Mets, that makes me want to bet on Philly. Right? I mean, makes sense, doesn’t it? Or definitely in the first 5 innings against deGrom. Yup, that makes the most sense. But seriously, I find myself doubting the numbers and doubting what should happen in games like this, because that’s just how absurd and asinine some of these early results have been. But then I remind myself of how we’re all supposed to be betting in the first place. Where is the value? What the best bet on this game? Is there a best bet on this game? As much as I want “lay the points” and the ML on the Mets and just choke out the money, I can’t. Philly is more than capable of hitting on even the best pitchers in MLB, and Zach Eflin, although steadily average throughout his career, can’t be too intimidated by the 26th ranked scoring Mets, although NYM has improved on their team batting average as the short season has progressed. Philadelphia has really struggled in this series, only scoring 4 runs over 3 games, including getting shutout against Stroman in the second game of a doubleheader. The temperature is chilly and windy today in Queens, NY, with rain approaching before first pitch and predicted to downpour again right around the game’s end. With deGrom on the dirt, the Phillies’ hitting and scoring woes, and some hopeful command from Eflin, who had 2 very different looking starts to the season, I’ll predict no runs in the 1st. The inflated juice and number, although not ideal, tells me this is probably the right side.
Game 1 of the Mariners/O’s: First 5 Over 5 (-110), 1.5 units and Game 1 over 7 (-110), 2 units: Two separate bets. I don’t trust either one of these pitchers. Tom Fornelli from CBS Sports put it best on Baltimore’s Matt Harvey, “Since 2016, Harvey has pitched 421.1 MLB innings. He has an ERA of 5.81 and a WHIP of 1.505 in that span. He has been a fringe starter at best. Now he’s in Baltimore because Baltimore’s rebuilding and hoping to find a lottery ticket. Just like the Reds, Angels and Royals did before them. And maybe this year is different! Harvey has an ERA of 5.59 after two starts this season, but his FIP is a respectable 3.24. It could be the year he recaptures the magic. Or he’s the same guy we’ve seen the last five seasons. I’m betting on the latter.” The Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez isn’t much better. One of the worst starting pitchers thus far through 2 games, Gonzalez has allowed a staggering 17 hits and 12 runs over 10 innings. There’s some evidence to suggest he’ll see some positive regression, 2019 and 2020 were solid years, with low HR ratios and BAPIB scores and an ERA of 3.99 and 3.10, but his decreasing velocity and startling lack of command thus far isn’t a good sign. The only thing that concerns me here is how Baltimore hits a leftie– there’s not enough data to make a good call on that one. Either way, Seattle and Baltimore’s bats are shaky and inconsistent at best, but this is ideal weather for hitters today in Charm City (65 degrees, low wind, high humidity) and both squads are in the bottom 5 in earned run average allowed already in 2021. Bet the overs.
Padres First 5 innings -0.5 (-105), 1 unit: Well, heading into this week it looked like Chris Paddack might be the weakest link of the 2021 Padres rotation. While Snell and Musgrove were looking unhittable and with clean games from Yu Darvish in the bank, Paddack couldn’t stay on the mound. The 6’5″ 25 year old got in just just eight innings of work in 2 games, allowing 5 earned runs while striking out six and walking four. Now, 3 games into the series and down 1-2, Paddack is the only chance the Padres have to avenge and tie up this series. Well, not the only chance. The Padres still own arguably the best bullpen in MLB, but it’s been getting tried and tested more against a Pirates team that’s getting hot behind their bats. I think Paddack can still turn things around. Not long ago, young Paddack was one of the more exciting pitchers in 2019, finishing the season 0.981 WHIP over 26 games. His velocity is still above-average and he’s due for some positive regression. Here’s to a bet that he can slow down the Pirates in the first half of this game. He’s gotta be ultra-motivated to do so.
Dodgers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: What am I stupid? I’ll keep betting this until it doesn’t work. Better pitching, sensational and limit-setting defense even when they allow hits (the Rockies equaled the Dodgers in hits last night, but LAD still covered the run line), and consistent, powerful hitting. Austin Gomber has looked good so far this year but as usual, I don’t think it matters. This is just a considerably better ballclub in LA.
