Welp, we were on most of the right sides yesterday; we just didn’t make the right bets. No problem– 57% is still our number and I feel good about today’s games. Is there anything better than a mild Saturday in the Spring, knowing a full slate of baseball is ahead? Besides a full lineup of football in the Fall, it’s hard to beat. Happy Saturday, good people!
Diamondbacks win (-105), 1.5 units: I can’t trust Fedde and I trust those Nats-bats even less. Scherzer did a fantastic job on the mound yesterday, as we figured he would, but it’s hard to imagine that Arizona won’t have more offense today. Erick Fedde mans the dirt for this early game 2, bringing an 8.53 ERA thanks to a clobbering from the Braves on April 7. He looked better in his second game against St. Louis, a team that’s mid to low-tier in runs per game and batting average. Ergo, I’m not sure what to take from that “improved” start from Fedde. Luke Weaver, on the other hand, is a pitcher I can get behind. Weaver absolutely dominated the Reds on April 14th. The state of Ohio was just starting to get used to Cincinnati’s premiere performances at bat until Weaver came through. Pitching a full 7 innings, he only permitted 1 hit. He also struck out 8 and the Reds couldn’t muster a single run. That’s pretty unreal. Nationals’ hitters are good and due for some positive regression, but they’re really struggling to convert their talent at bat into actual points. If Weaver can show the kind of command he did against the Reds, Washington is in a ton of trouble today. Give me the road dog for a win. I also lean over in this one (the over has hit 6 out of the last 7 games between these two clubs).
White Sox/Red Sox over 9 (-105), 1 unit: Just one unit because I’m slightly concerned I’m missing something (am I? I think it’s just one of those weird sports bettor feelings where it feels too easy), but Cease and Pivetta are two pitchers still struggling with command and control and both of these ballclubs have great offenses. Boston and Chicago are top 10 in runs per game, Boston has moved up to 2nd overall in batting average and hits per game, and the White Sox should see some improvement after facing above-average pitching against Cleveland. The only thing that concerns me here is the weather. It’ll be sloppy, chilly, and not incredibly humid. Still, both of these throwers are vulnerable and this feels like one of those 7-5, 8-3 type contests. Bang the over.
Dodgers/Padres first 5 under 3.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Full Game under 7.5 (-120), 1.2 units: Two separate bets. The first showdown between the super-hyped Padres and the 2020 World Series Champions did not disappoint. Pushing to the 12th inning, LAD and San Diego sent 17 different combined pitchers to the mound in a back and forth battle. The young stud Ryan Weathers again looked sensational for the Padres, while Walker Buehler had another commanding start. Both teams showed the unparalleled depth in their rotations. The Dodgers, who are short-handed with Bellinger and Pollock and other playmakers out, showed how talented and deep they are behind bat, too. Luke Raley hit a homerun in the 5th and Zach McKinstry drove in runs in crucial spots in the 8th and 12th innings. It felt like a heavyweight bout between two playoff teams. Needless to say, it’ll be good ongoing TV to watch their multiple series this year and to see who gains an edge. Tonight, everyone’s tired but Kershaw and Darvish. Yu Darvish had a rough first outing to start the season but he’s looked crisp ever since. In his last 2 games over 13 innings pitched, Darvish has only allowed 6 hits and 2 runs. He’s struck out 13 during that span. He also owns a WHIP of 0.96. Kershaw’s stats are very similar– a rare bad start in game 1 (although it was at Coors field) but he’s come on strong since, pitching 13 innings and allowing only 1 run. My first inclination was to hit the over in this game because of how worked the rotations were last night. On second thought, the depth and creativity deployed from each bullpen was on full display in game 1 and I trust it here again. Kershaw and Darvish could each pitch 6 innings, too. I see this game playing out with less hits, less fireworks, and a pitching grind to the finish. Give me the unders.
Twins (-110), 2 units: A grand slam from Justin Upton in the 7th sent the bye bye cue to the Twins’ hopes of winning game 1 in LA. The Angels took a commanding lead behind 5 solid innings from Heaney and a great showing from their bullpen. Onto the next one. LAA’s offense is starting to flex. Rated 3rd overall in hits per game and 4th overall in runs per game, the Angels bring a 0.265 batting average (also 4th overall) into today’s contest against the struggling Matt Shoemaker. Over 11 innings and 2 games, the Twins’ starter has allowed 10 hits, 5 runs and holds a WHIP of 1.00. Not abysmal, but his command is volatile and against this confident Angels unit who was due some positive regression after losing their series against Boston, I can’t say I trust Shoemaker. Still, Minnesota’s rotation is stronger than the Angels. Their bullpen is formidable and they hold a top 10 team ERA. Can they cool off the Angels’ bats today? That’s a different question. Los Angeles’ Jose Quintana has really had issues in 2021. In his last start he got blasted by the Blue Jays and allowed 7 runs in just 1.2 innings. His first start wasn’t much better, gifting the Astros with 4 runs and 5 hits in just over 3 innings of play. Quintana should regress to his mean, which is far better command than what he’s showing, but until he proves he’s out of his funk I have to play against him. The Twins have the better rotation and are top 10 in all the same offensive categories that I mentioned above for LAA. Minnesota is also averaging 6 runs per game on the road. I’ll take the Twins to outplay the Angels’ bats and tie up the series.
