3-1 in MLB plays Saturday and on the prowl for more. I have only 3 plays today as I try to demonstrate judiciousness here (it’s tough with all the opportunity on the board) but we’re not action junkies, we’re sharp bettors right? Right. Let’s keep winning!
Reds (+140), 1.5 units: It’s never fun going against Shane Bieber but what’s not to like about the Wade Miley show thus far? Miley has been one of the most impressive and dominant pitchers this short season, striking out 9 hitters and only allowing 4 hits over 11 innings and 2 starts on the mound. And he hasn’t allowed a single run. Am I a little concerned that the sample size could be misleading, especially since those 2 performances came against the Pirates and Giants? Sure. But I also trust the Cincinnati bats way more than Cleveland’s. The Indians are still a bottom dweller in both batting average and runs per game. Under 3.5 runs in the first 5 is a good bet, too. I trust the Reds to eke out another win against Cleveland’s ace behind a surging and confident Wade Miley. They’ve looked like the clear better club thus far.
Mets/Rockies over 6 (-105) in the first 5 innings, 1 unit: It’ll be a sunny, mild day in the Mile-High City as chillier weather blows East and two very hittable pitchers take the mound at Coors Field. Just like we saw in game 2 of this series last night, the Rockies are aware that their talented bats can and need to take advantage of Mets’ pitchers not named deGrom. Their offense showed up with 7 runs in the first 5 innings and that’s all they needed to tie the series. Marcus Stroman has looked really good thus far but even the best in this game get bested at Coors. Just ask Clayton Kershaw. Stroman is also due a little negative regression and this is a great spot to lose some touch. Antonio Senzatela brings 3 starts and a 7.07 ERA to the dirt today. Of course 2 of those starts were against the Dodgers so that’s partially why he’s struggled. A rare home command against the Diamondbacks helped Senzatela overall numbers, but New York is also in a great position for positive regression on offense. The Mets are a top 10 team in batting average but, like the Nats, can’t seem to convert that into points. Expect more points today from both of these ballclubs. I like it at reduced juice in the first 5.
Athletics win (-144), 2 units: I’m gonna ride the A-Train while it lasts and I think this is a good pitching battle to favor Oakland. The Athletics look like a different team since the start of the season. After an ugly 7 out of 8 losses to kick off 2021, the Athletics have now won 7 straight games. During those first 8 games, their team ERA was a lousy 7.91. During the current unbeaten streak, A’s starters are 5-0 with an average ERA of 2.63– that’s quite an improvement. Offensive production and its associate numbers are on the rise too as the Athletics are slugging and turning opportunities into points with big homeruns and excellent base-running. Matthew Boyd mans the dirt today for Detroit and he’s looked the part of an ace so far, commanding a 1.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 19.1 innings. He had great games against Cleveland and Houston but got hit on and a bit exposed against the surging Twins. Chris Bassitt is up for Oakland and he’s been solid so far, though I expect some positive regression for a pitcher in his prime and coming off two exceptional seasons. Bassitt has better command than the numbers show. Oakland hasn’t hit too often against lefties this year (123 a bats) but when they have they’ve looked great, owning a .260 batting average and .480 slugging percentage. I think today’s game looks a lot like Boyd’s second start against Minnesota. Give me the team with all the smoke and momentum– I’m on the A’s for 2 units.
