A fine start to our MLB betting in 2021 as I went 2-1 in my first post. Man, I didn’t expect to see Shane Bieber lit up like that by the Tigers early but that’s why we play the game! Opening Day is expected to bring some surprises and boy did it ever. Big favorites like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs all lost. We’ll see what surprises the major leagues have in store today as most of the aces leave the mound and now we’re officially IN the season. Here are my Friday bets:
Orioles win (+155), 1.5 units and Orioles/Red Sox over 9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Let’s take a shot at the O’s, shall we?! Nathan Eovaldi leads the Red Sox in the opener against John Means and the seemingly perpetually-rebuilding Baltimore Orioles. With a WHIP of 0.98 and ERA of 4.53, John Means was the closest thing Baltimore had to an ace in 2020. The leftie brought 42 strikeouts and a few memorable wins thru August and September. Eovaldi, on the other hand, was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise abysmal year for the Red Sox. The right-hander delivered a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Against the O’s, he’s really thrived. In his career, Eovaldi is 6-1 and has 54 strikeouts against Baltimore. So then why am I betting on the O’s to get the W in the opener? Value baby, value. The Red Sox bats are average at best. Bogaerts and Verdugo and Martinez are all solid hitters but they’ve lost a lot of their star-power. And if 2020 was any indication, I’m not exactly intimidated to lay money against ’em. The Orioles are a good, mid-tier hitting team, ranked 17th overall in runs per game. They’ll welcome the long-awaited return of Trey Mancini on Opening Day, and Santander and Mountcastle round out a lineup that can catch good pitchers by surprise. By my estimation, this line is just too inflated and because of that, I have to take a shot on the dog. It’s a pure value play. I’ll also take a shot on the over for 1 unit– historically these teams score against each other and ultimately I don’t trust either bullpen to prevent the hits once they start coming. Just to be clear– this isn’t a parlay but two separate bets.
Dodgers -1.5 (170), 2.5 units: Opening Day vengeance is mine, says the Dodgers. It was an overall disappointing showing yesterday at Coors both by Clayton Kershaw and a Dodgers lineup that couldn’t keep pace with the Rockies. On most teams, Trevor Bauer would be an ace. The 30 year old right hander pitcher boasted a 1.73 ERA last year, second only to Shane Bieber, and a WHIP of 0.79. His addition to an already stacked and talented Dodgers squad is pretty scary and it should scare the Rockies on Friday. Antonio Senzatela is a solid pitcher but no match for a motivated Dodgers unit at Coors Field, while Bauer should be able to keep most of the Rockies’ bats at bay. The over (11.5) looks good again today but I like the LAD side even better.
Astros win (+120), 1.5 units: Rut row, Houston looked mighty confident last night, especially under Greinke’s arm. I think that continues here Friday. Christian Javier was considered one of the better rookie pitchers in 2020, showing his command and confidence in both the regular season and postseason play. In 2020, his ERA was 3.48 with a WHIP of 0.99 and he posted a 2.89 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 2 playoff games. Tested and behind a lineup that rocked Bassitt in game 1, I think Javier can expose the Athletics’ lack of offensive prowess that had so many worried before the 2021 season kicked off. The Astros have had their way with Luzardo in the past, too. Houston seems poised for some resurgence after all their recent controversy and advertsity; Brantley in particular looks ready to have a huge 2021 season. They’re the better all-around team and despite the revenge angle, I can’t pass up on a chance for plus money here. Go Astros!
