Its nice to take a break from MLB. I enjoyed it muchly, thank you for asking. Now back to the grind; somehow we’re still pulling off a winning record overall at 32-26 since the start of the season. America’s past-time is a marathon not a sprint, so all we can do is keep trusting our numbers and experience. I’ll continue putting out less plays for lighter units until we see some semblance of patterns we can trust. Onto my plays:
Dodgers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Is there a better play in baseball than siding with the Dodgers after a loss and with the better pitcher? Probably not. Marco Gonzalez brings an 8.22 ERA and 1.76 WHIP into this contest, allowing over 4 runs per start over 15 innings. LAD is still missing Cody Bellinger and could be missing Mookie Betts today, which we surely don’t love, but the Dodgers have proved how resilient and talent-heavy they are in recent past. I have no issue betting on them to surge ahead against an inferior team like Seattle, although the Mariners have looked very serviceable thus far. Julio Urias takes the mound for LAD, owning a 3.86 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. He’s certainly been hittable, allowing 3 runs per game over 3 starts and 18 innings pitched. While those numbers aren’t astounding, Julio has served as a consistent staple for his Dodgers over his 5 year career as a pro, rounding into his own in 2019 (2.49 ERA) and 2020 (3.27 ERA). In other words, I expect some positive regression for Urias. The Mariners are one of 2021’s surprises but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Early points by the home-team in game 1 and a solid showing from Seattle’s bullpen was enough to secure a win last night. Expect a bounce-back from the champs and a win by margin today. LAD also has the more rested bullpen.
Braves win (EVEN), 2 units: The Yankees have shown me no reason to believe that this is the game they’ll win. Every game is a “good spot” for them to circle back and reignite their season and they just haven’t done it. Now you’re giving me a clear pitching advantage in Charlie Morton (who’s played most of his career in the AL East) and an Atlanta lineup that’s finding their bats at even money? The inherent value is massive. Ronald Acuna Jr., who’s playing like a superhuman this year, managed to avoid the injury list but it’s unknown if he’ll play today. An abdominal strain can’t be fun to deal with in a hip-centric game like baseball, so he may be advised to rest. That’s a big loss if he does, but I still trust Morton over these ice cold Yankee hitters. Both teams had 2 days to rest so there’s no advantage there, although the Braves have the more rested bullpen. I’m on Atlanta.
Reds (-130), 1.5 units: This is a good spot for the Reds. Luis Castillo is consistent in the sense that he’s unpredictable.. if that makes sense. He has really impressive starts and then he gets blasted. And then he has another commanding outing, looking like an unhittable ace, and then he gets annihilated again. Since I started really paying attention to baseball a few years ago this is what I’ve seen and come to expect from Castillo– he’s a sterling young pitcher with a big arm and sky-high potential, and he also hasn’t figured out how to provide a consistent command just yet. Arizona’s bats have cooled off lately, dropping in batting average to 0.223, which is good for 19th overall in MLB. This feels like another “get right” setup for Castillo, who’s had a full week to rest and think about his rough day at San Francisco in his last start (7.04 ERA). Zac Gallen looked good in his first game back but he’s coming off a hairline fracture in his right forearm, something I can’t exactly get behind until I see more from the young aspiring ace. At home, and after losing their first series to Arizona, I’ll bank a W on Cincinnati.
