Welp, a nice little ass kicking from MLB sends us to hump day (although the Reds game isn’t over yet); happy to get a little redemption today. Please excuse the next 5 days of my posts— My bachelor party starts today until Sunday morning so my time will be more limited. I’ll still be putting out daily NBA and MLB picks but the cards will be lighter and the write-ups will be packaged very tightly (shorter). It would be irresponsible for me to just put out picks if I can’t give it the same amount of attention. Anywho, onto today’s plays!
Marlins first 5 (-180), 1.8 units: This is an inflated line for a reason. Young gun Trevor Rogers takes the mound for Miami and he’s looked the part. His breaking ball is a work in progress but the 6’5″ 23 year old has a cannon for an arm and a 2.87 FIP in 2021 over 15 innings pitched. Miami, looking for revenge after last night’s tough loss against Baltimore, faces off against Orioles pitcher Bruce Zimmermann. Ol’ Bruce still has too many command issues for my liking, including a proclivity for allowing deep hits in the outfield. Give me the Marlins in the first half.
Tigers win Game 1 (-132), 1.5 units: Tyler Anderson has looked pretty awful thus far this season, giving up 19 hits and 3 homers in just 3 starts. Michael Fulmer and his 0.67 WHIP should be a good catalyst for a Detroit team that’s had a really tough schedule to this point and isn’t as bad as their record indicates. Against the volatile and struggling Pirates, I’ll take the Tigers 7/10 times in this situation, which means it’s an auto-bet.
Astros (-140), 2 units: Jose Urquidy hasn’t had a stellar start to this season but what he’s shown in recent past is nothing short of exceptional. His ability to limit homeruns this year is particularly noteworthy at only 0.56 per 9 innings over 3 starts– that’s a good thing for a game at Coors Field. Austin Gomber, on the other hand, is known for his “fly ball” pitching but that could quickly deteriorate against a hungry Astros team coming off a loss in the thin air of Denver. Give me the way better lineup, rotation, and overall team to bounce back Wednesday and get a victory on the road.
Twins/Athletics under 7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Minnesota vs Oakland displays two pitchers in Kenta Maeda and Frankie Montas that are due for some significant positive regression. I’d lean the Twins here, who have more consistent bats and I like Maeda more, but I think this is a great spot in low-altitude Oakland to chase two pitchers who are significantly better than what they’ve shown thus far. The books are daring us to take the over here– I’m happy to stiff-arm that and ride the under instead. Nice try, Joe Bookie.
