A nice 2-1 start back to action and to start our week, and the wins were + money! There’s a mighty Tuesday card and I have 5 picks to show for it. Let’s go!
Pirates win (-115), 1.5 units: The surprising Royals take on the equally surprising Pirates in Pittsburgh this evening, and it’s about time we start betting on these teams and taking advantage of value-lines when we see them. Jake Junis brings a 3.71 ERA over 17 innings into this contest for KC, but he got blasted by the Rays in his last outing, allowing 6 hits and 5 runs over 5 innings. Kansas City can hit and they’ve pitched really well as a whole. Their last series victory was dominant, but it was against the Tigers so that gives it a little perspective. I’m more impressed by what I see from the Pirates lately. Pittsburgh won another series, the last W over the Twins in Minnesota, and they’ve outscored their opponents 34-25 in their last 3 series. While that’s not a huge margin, they’ve found ways to out-pitch or out-slug their foes over a long 10 day road trip, which is not something we usually see from Pittsburgh teams of the recent past. The Pirates return home today behind Tyler Anderson. Anderson’s steady command has earned a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 20.2 innings played. He’s looked sharpest in his last 2 games, allowing only 7 hits and 3 runs. I like the Pirates returning home in game 1 against a Royals team that’s due for a little negative regression.
Orioles win (+148), 1 unit: As we said from day 1 here in these articles, Corey Kluber’s arm was bound to get off to a slow start after incurring those tough injuries. His numbers reflect that reality– a 5.40 ERA, 6.43 FIP and a staggering 1.8 homeruns per 9 innings over just 15 innings played. I hope the kid gets it right but I can’t anticipate that’ll happen today against a zealous Orioles team. Baltimore is only 3-8 at Camden Yards and they know it. The O’s won game 1 at home after another dry hitting day from the Yanks and today they send Bruce Zimmerman to the mound. Zimmerman is no ace but his numbers are all better than Kluber. Baltimore’s offensive statistics are all pretty mid-tier but that’s all you need against a struggling Yankees unit; one that’s last in the majors in slugging percentage. There’s value here on Baltimore and I’m grabbing it– gooooo O!
Red Sox/Mets over 8.5 (-110), 2 units: Ready for a crazy statistic? Red Sox opponents have scored first in 11 of their last 12 games. That’s pretty incredible. While they surely allow a lot of runs, the Red Sox are also one of the best units in MLB in a ton of offensive categories like runs per game, hits per game, RBIs per game, batting average, and they’re #1 in slugging percentage. Today Boston and New York send out two of their worst options at the mound in Garrett Richards and David Peterson, who both have ERAs that soar way over 6. This line is getting juiced up but I got it at -110 and it sure feels like a steal. It’s a lovely dad in Queens and an even lovelier recipe for some scoring. Hammer that over.
Diamondbacks win (+128), 1 unit: Two squads feeling fat and sassy come into Tuesday night and I’ll favor the one that’s getting better value against a pitcher I’m not too fond of. Chris Paddack can’t seem to turn around his command issues and I’m happy to fade him for plus money in spots like this. Paddack has allowed 1 hit and .78 runs per inning thus far. The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound today, who hasn’t looked much better than Paddack, but strong performances from Arizona’s sluggers and bullpen, in addition to most of their starting pitchers, have led to victories in 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also only played 5 out of their 22 games at home, so a .500 record through that sort of schedule ain’t too shabby. The Diamondbacks also slug better and have more runs than the Padres on the season. Give me the D-backs for great value!
Giants -1.5 (+120), 1.3 units: By now you already know what I do– the San Francisco Giants are pretty darn good, and most of that is predicated on their pitching (now if only the NY Giants can bring the same heat in pro football, this guy will be really happy). The 15-8 Giants, who are 9-2 at home, remain at Oracle Park today after another series win, most recently against the Marlins. After a 12-0 beat-down of Colorado last night, who’s lack of depth and offseason versatility is really starting to show, the two teams face again in a game that should feature a lower tally of runs. Though I think the result will be the same. The Rockies allow a rough 2.58 batting average to opponents thus far, though it’s hard to blame much of that on Chi Chi Gonzalez. Their “sometimes starter” has a 3.00 ERA and has allowed 15 hits over 15 innings pitched (but only 5 total runs) and only 10 hits in his last 4 games. The Giants send Aaron Sanchez to the mound tonight who, like many of their pitchers, has been special so far this season. Sanchez has earned a 1.80 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and has only allowed 4 runs in 19.2 innings pitched. The 28 year old has seen a drop-off in his velocity this year but not in command, allowing 0.46 homeruns per 9 innings and flexing a 88% left on base percentage. These are two ballclubs going in opposite directions and I see little to no value in taking the Rockies right now. Give me SF by margin.
