A perfect 4-0 day yesterday, including some + money bets, gave yours truly an awesome sit-back-and-watch-it-happen type of night, which I needed. I hope you all benefited from some of those picks. Moving onward and upward and as is always the challenge after a night like that, we’re staying humble and looking for more value today.
Athletics (-115), 1.5 units: This is a good opportunity for Oakland and a play on Bassitt’s longevity. The Rays will rollout debut starter Shane McClanahan in a big spot at home, but at least the rookie doesn’t have the pressure of winning the series for Tampa. The Rays are up 2-1 against Oakland after a bunch of low scoring pitching duels. Glasnow went 7 innings in a win for Tampa last night so the Rays’ bullpen might be slightly more rested but the rotations are pretty even at this point. Oakland has had their struggles scoring but solid pitching, from starters and relievers, have kept them afloat and they know how to win on the road (7-4 away). Chris Bassitt doesn’t have exceptional numbers thus far (4.13 ERA over 28 innings) but he’s generally a steady hand, willing to allow a few runs when he starts but nothing that puts his team in real trouble. I expect the six-year starter to see some positive regression, especially considering the uptick in his four-seam fastball velocity and his command over limiting homeruns thus far (0.64 per 9 innings). I’ll take a shot on the Athletics to even the series before they return home Friday to face a very beatable Orioles team.
Phillies first five -0.5 (+110), 1 unit: This is all about Aaron Nola. The Cardinals have an early dependency on big hits and homeruns to earn points and wins, but Nola is a pitcher I trust to put the breaks on that. So far in 2021 the 27 year old right hander has looked in ace form, holding a 2.84 ERA, 2.46 FIP, a left on base percentage of 76.2% and only allowing 0.57 homeruns/9 innings over 31 innings pitched. Philly is putting miles on Nola but it’s paying off. Back on April 18th, Nola almost earned a no-hitter against this same Cardinals team at home; he’ll look to find the same juice today after a below-average performance recently against the Rockies. St Louis is sending Kwang Hyun Kim to the mound today, who had back stiffness that kept him from more playing time earlier this year. Perhaps with a longer leash today, I expect a Philly team that’s rallied behind Bryce Harper (that ball to the face yesterday, ouch) to put up some early runs. With Nola keeping the overrated Cardinals offense in check, I love a first 5 win for Philly.
White Sox (in Game 1) -1.5 (+120), 2 units: This is a play on Rodon and a fade on Mize. Casey Mize started the season looking sharp but lately he’s been getting blasted by teams that aren’t exactly juggernauts at bat. Mize has allowed 14 hits and 11 runs over 9 innings in his last 2 starts– I can’t love that against a White Sox team that’s top 5 in so many offensive categories. The electric Carlos Rodon gets the nod for the Sox today and while everyone should be aware of how good he’s been so far (0.47 ERA, 95 mph four-seam fastball, 0.47 homeruns/9 innings, 0.68 WHIP), the outlook looks even worse for Detroit. The Tigers haven’t faced many lefties in 2021 but when they have it hasn’t looked pretty. In 170 at bats, Detroit has only 8 runs and a subpar .182 batting average against left-handed pitchers. The White Sox lost game 1 of this series, they’re at home, Rodon is feeling himself and Mize is very vulnerable– it’s a run line bet on Chicago for me.
Rockies/Diamondbacks over 8.5 (-120), 1.5 units: Two pitchers trending in the wrong direction, the Rockies are finding their bats, and the Diamondbacks might be on the chase here again today. A little extra juice to pay but I love another over here.
