A 3-1 Friday in MLB betting puts me at 5-2 overall for the season thus far– not too shabby. I know there’s a ton of games available every day but like I said in my first article, sometimes the key to steady winning, especially at the start of a season, is to play it slow and steady and not overly invest. You’ll see that from me at first but as the season progresses and we can take a deeper dive into these teams, the number of plays will be on the rise. Also, I don’t want to base the first games of 2021 entirely on 2020 evidence. I don’t discount it, surely, but plenty has changed since that abbreviated COVID schedule and it’s important to not get too distracted by what you saw last Fall. I’ll also lay easy on the statistical data and my plays will be more angle/intangible based until a plethora of data can be analyzed. Okay, I’m ranting, but you get it. Onto my Saturday picks!
Yankees win (-166), 2 units: Okay let’s not get overly excited about NYY losing. I called the Toronto win in the opener and I loved to see it. With Ryu at the helm and talented young hitters across the Blue Jay lineup, I wasn’t phased to see them take down the mighty Yankees. The American League should make for some competitive baseball this year. That being said, the Yankees are a great play today. Corey Kluber is finally healthy (his last full season of play was back in 2018) and he’s undoubtedly ready to prove he still has an elite arm. The two-time AL Cy Young winner, three-time All Star and once ERA title holder has all the tools to resurge his career and at 34, he still has plenty of time to do it. Ross Stripling is looking for some of the same resurgence but I can’t say I believe in him the same. Stripling has had his struggles–it’s why LAD released him– and should be no match for an angry Yankees unit who hit below par in their first outing against the same team. Give me the Yankees at home in a great spot to redeem themselves, behind the arm of Kluber 2.0, or so we hope.
Lean, Orioles win (+149): Too much uncertainty for me about Matt Harvey but I love what I saw from Baltimore yesterday. Mancini added energy and the Orioles hitters (Mountcastle in particular) were playing like they had a bunch of freerolls at your neighborhood casino. And why not? Most experts have the ceiling awfully low on the Orioles and eventually, after years of rebuilding and underperforming, that has to build some fiery resentment. The Red Sox, on the other hand, looked awfully underwhelming.
Royals -1.5 (+110), 1 unit: Mike Minor has globetrotted around the major leagues but hopes to find a home with Kansas City. Minor served 3 solid years with the Rangers and now gets to face his former team with a unit that’s eyeing massive improvement this year. Texas is one of the most hittable teams in MLB (and I think may finish with the worst overall record in 2021) and Minor, with a consistent FIP throughout his career (including a low 4.22 in 2020, reminiscent of his CY Young contender year in 2019 with the same Rangers team) and elite command, should have his way today with his former squad. I’ll take the run-line on KC.
Braves win (-115), 1.5 units: This is purely based on my belief in Charlie Morton, even though he’s not the youngest stallion these days at 37. Still, Morton has been as consistent as it gets– holding a great FIP throughout the years and always showing exceptional command. Zach Wheeler had a good showing in 2020 and I like him moving forward for the Phillies, but until they can prove their bullpen won’t lose them games, I like a much more talented set of bats for Atlanta to get some revenge here today.
