The month of May is nearly upon us and that means summer is around the corner. A decent day with some close calls yesterday landed us at 2-2 after a 4-0 Wednesday. Let’s get some more wins today. Happy Friday, people!
Cardinals/Pirates under 8 (-115), 2 units: This number is getting even more juiced up now but it’s the right side and even if you have to pay a little more, the right side is worth the value. Two commanding pitchers take the mound today in John Gant (2.25 over 20 innings) and JT Brubaker (2.01 ERA over 22 innings). Gant just came off a really impressive performance against the Reds, holding one of MLB’s premiere offenses scoreless through 6 innings, while Brubaker had a solid performance last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. My lean here would be Pittsburgh, just because of the spot after a loss at home, and I trust their offense a little more. But the truth is neither of these teams boast bats that can take over a game. It’ll be a windy, chillier day in Western Pennsylvania and this feels like, at most, a 4-2 type of situation. Under all day for me.
Yankees first five -2 (+120), 1 unit: This is the best value bet I can find on the Yankees side and I’m going to ride with it. I really wanted to bet on Detroit for the value we’re getting against Gerrit Cole, but that feels like a force-feed. For all the woes the Yanks have been through thus far and for all the reasons we have to constantly fade them, this game sets up perfectly for the Bronx bombers. Tarik Skubal takes the mound for the Tigers and I’m sure the NYY bats are salivating at the opportunity to oppose him. Disregarding one clean 3 inning game against a bad offense, Skubal has allowed at least 2 runs in every brief start he’s made thus far (he averages 3.6 innings per game). And what’s even worse for Detroit’s chances today, Skubal loves to allow homeruns. Through 5 games, Skubal is permitting 2.37 homers per 9 innings. The Yankees rank among the worst teams in baseball in many offensive categories– batting average (24th), hits per game (24th), runs per game (26th), etc. Where the Yankees thrive is hitting beyond the fence, where they currently rank 6th overall in MLB. Aaron Judge has some vague injury he’s working through but beat reporters tell us he’s playing today. Gerrit Cole (1.71 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 31.2 innings) remains the one bright spot in the Yankees rotation, pitching long into games and holding command with ease. Yankees by 2.5 or 3.5 or even 4.5 might be worth a look here, as well as the over or individual player props, but I’ll take the first 5 for some early slugs and a few homers while Cole keeps flexing. If something else happens I wouldn’t be surprised, that’s how MLB is these days, but this is a perfect setup for NYY fireworks. Detroit’s bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, too.
Reds win (-121), 1.5 units: I love Cincinnati in this spot and as you may know, I love fading Arrieta even more. The Reds are giving Wade Miley (2.45 ERA over 22 innings) the nod today. Miley has been on the wrong end of some streaky offenses recently in the Indians and Cardinals but he had a sensational first two starts, allowing only 4 hits and 0 runs in 11 innings. The last two games looked different; Miley allowed 10 hits and 6 runs over 11 innings. He’ll look for some positive regression today and I expect him to get it against a Cubs team that lives and dies on homeruns. In 2021, Miley is only allowing 0.82 homers per 9 innings. Chicago is coming off a rare blitzkrieg of offense last night against the Braves, but that was more about an Atlanta-let-down than it was a superb Cubs offense if you ask me. Jake Arrieta (2.57 over 28 innings) has looked pretty good thus far but I never get too excited about what I see from him. He’s just too sporadic. The Reds are one of the top offenses in MLB and they’re coming off a nice series win against LAD. Back home after a rare rest day with a better offense and a pitcher I’d much rather back, I’ll take the Reds to secure the first win of the series.
Rays win (+105), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on Ryan Yarbrough (4.28 ERA over 27 innings) and the Rays here. Yarbrough seems to have found his groove recently, allowing only 5 hits and 1 run over 10.2 innings in his last two games. I’m a little hesitant about him starting, since Yarbrough seems to prefer the fill-in role early in the ballgame, but he’s looked excellent in his last 2 games at the mound. The Astros are a team I like to fade in spots like this, where they’re favored really only by name, not by their actual performance this year. Lance McCullers Jr. (4.58 ERA over 19.2 innings) is the thrower elect for Houston and he’s heading in the opposite direction of Yarbrough, recently permitting 7 hits and 8 runs in just 9.2 innings in his last 2 games. The Rays are a mid-tier offense due for some positive regression, and they can explode if given the right pitcher. I could see them surprising Houston and taking an early lead today. The value is on Tampa Bay.
