7-3 so far in MLB betting– small sample size but hell, that’s 70%. I’ll take it!
Yankees -1.5 (-125), 2 units: This line is exactly where it should be. Despite the O’s 3-0 record (love it by the way), hopefully we all realize that the Orioles have been absolutely owned by the Yankees in recent past. I know and I agree– Baltimore is full of young talent, the return of Mancini is awesome and they’re fun to cheer for– but the buck stops here. Jordon Montgomery is more than formidable enough to command the mound and use Baltimore’s aggressive confidence against them. Just look at the Yankees’ bats on paper in comparison to Baltimore; it’s not fair. I love it when the little guy wins, trust me. I’m not a Yankees fan. But this is an ideal spot for redemption for a team that has big plans in 2021 and simply started out cold on the mound and by the catcher. Fade the Orioles, and expect some positive regression from a certain Aaron Judge in perfect 67 degree weather in the Bronx. Might be a good player prop.
Royals win (EVEN), 1 unit: Cleveland is down to their last-use pitchers and here comes Logan Allen, the youngin from West Palm Beach who will be making his very first start for the Indians. The pressure is only mounted by the fact that Cleveland’s ace Shane Bieber and then runner up ace Zac Plesac couldn’t get the job done in the first two outings, despite some very solid command. Cleveland sits at 1-2 because of it and now, in their first game at home, veteran pitcher Danny Duffy and a new-look 2-1 Kansas City squad come into town. KC’s bats were white hot in their first 2 contests, lighting up the scoreboard with 25 runs; of course it was against the Rangers, but still. Michael A. Taylor and company are playing with confidence and even though they’re hitters cooled down Sunday, I expect to see an aggressive attack-mode-style from the Royals’ lineup. Duffy has lost some in velocity but he’s experienced, has a solid command and he’s been a Royal for a decade. Cleveland’s icy hitters don’t scare him, either. I’m on the Royals.
Mets -1.5 (-130), 2 units: Matt Moore, the newly signed back-end pitcher for Philadelphia, has traveled the world and back. After a journeyman career in MLB, he landed last year in Japan and ended up performing really well in the 2020 Japan Series, pitching 7 no-hit innings and five strikeouts. Now the newly acquired Phillies pitcher will look to redeem his career in his first game starting in the major leagues in 2 years. It’s just too bad it’s in this spot. Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets travel to Citizens Bank Park Monday and one has to believe they’re absolutely ITCHING to play their first regular season contest of 2021 after a little COVID delay startled their opening series against Washington. And I’m here to capitalize on it. Last year the Phillies bullpen was God-awful. I won’t try and count how many games they blew in 2020 because of their relievers (mostly because I’m writing this at 11:40pm and starting to fade) but it was plenty. Maybe Matt Moore comes in here and proves he’s ready to play with the big boys and stifles the Mets’ bats, but I don’t see it. Even if he mostly does, the Mets may have only to score 2 runs with deGrom at the helm to cover this bet. I don’t trust the Phillies’ bullpen in the long term and this spot is too juicy– I’ll take the Mets with ease.
Lean, Angels win (-125): Out of respect for the Houston bats, who have been laying the WOOD to start the 2021 season, I’ll only make this a lean. Jose Quintana is one of the better “back-end” pitchers in MLB. Although he’s seen some drop in velocity with age, he held a very respectable 2.99 FIP in 2020 and only allowed .90 homers for every 9 innings played. The Astros will break out Luis Garcia, their long-time minor league pitcher who had a decent first year in the major leagues in 2020. The difference between his ERA and FIP scares me (2.92 to 4.36) and LAA has been impressive at bat, gaining and maintaining a lead against solid pitching in their opening series against the White Sox. I want to bet Houston here, lord knows they’ve played well as a dog and those bats are HOT, but my head tells me to take the Angels. You can decide what side to take, if any.
