Now we’re 9-4 to start the MLB season; we just keep on winning! Onto Tuesday!
Yankees -1.5 (-145), 2 units: Baltimore’s Dean Kremer, the first Israeli Major League pitcher in history, gets his first start today against the mighty New York Yankees in the Bronx. The 2015 draftee probably would have picked a different spot for his first ever start, but here we are. The rookie starter had a good 2020, posting a 2.76 FIP and allowing 0 homeruns in 18 innings. The kid has upside and could be a good addition for Baltimore, but this isn’t the spot. In case you didn’t notice, the Yankees bats came alive yesterday, dropping 7 runs and giving up 0 thanks to an outstanding 6 innings from Jordon Montgomery and 6 clean strikeouts from the Yankees’ bullpen. Aaron Judge, America’s favorite villain, finally took a big swing and it paid off with a 344 foot homer to spark New York’s offense, which later led to a grand-slam from Giancarlo Stanton. Now the Orioles have to do it all over again with Gerrit Cole at the mound. Despite allowing a first inning score and a late homer, Cole looked good in his opener last week against the Blue Jays. Exceptional as always in his command, Cole scored a 3.38 ERA and managed 8 strikeouts. Although good for most pitchers, it’s not enough for Cole. I expect some positive regression tonight against a Baltimore lineup that’s notoriously aggressive and easy to send swinging. Give me the Yanks by more than 1 run; New York’s bats stay hot, too.
Marlins win (-127), 1.5 units: I’m a Sandy Alcantara guy. Although he’s had some issues with his command, Alcantara has elite arm strength and has improved every year in the major leagues. His FIP, for example, has steadily improved since 2017– in chronological order: 6.04, 4.75, 4.55, and 3.72 in 2020. In his first debut this year for the Marlins, he held Tampa Bay scoreless through 6 innings and looks to have a repeat performance today against the 2-2 Cardinals. The Cards bring John Gant to the mound for his first start since 2018 and that smells like a fade candidate to me. In 28 career starts, Gant was 6-10 and held a 3.99 ERA while earning 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. According to the NY Post, “Gant is also unlikely to offer tons of length with not having pitching more than 2 ¹/₃ innings in an appearance since being a starter in 2018.” The Cardinals have a good bullpen but Miami is hungry for a win. I’ll take the Marlins.
Phillies win (+110), 1 unit: I mean, why not? Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched since 2019 and Chase Anderson looked great in spring training. Meanwhile, the Mets continue to struggle once their aces are off the mound and Philly is playing with a ton of confidence, winning without their modus operandi of needing homeruns (they only have 1 HR on the year so far). Might as well jump on the train while I can (watch, tonight they lose)!
White Sox win (-160), 2 units: I’ll be short and frank about this– this is all about the White Sox killing lefties angle, and I like it even better against James Paxton. Paxton is back on his old team after a stint with the Yankees went south. His velocity dropped dramatically last year (from 95.6 mph to 92.6 mph on four-seam fastballs) and he allowed a horrific 1.77 homeruns per 9 innings. Not a good recipe for a confident White Sox unit that has no quarrels capitalizing on a weakened left-handed pitcher. I’m all over the Sox.
Rockies win (-127), 1.5 units: When I get an opportunity to bet the Rockies, I do because I’m a closet-fan-boy of the franchise. I just think it would be awesome to live in Denver and be a fan of that team. Every game is exciting at Coors and the backdrop of the Rockies in a cool city like that, it’s too ideal. Anyway, German Marquez looked good against the Dodgers last week. Marquez posted a 2.25 ERA in 4 innings, allowed 0 homeruns and only 1 run– not easy to do in Coors. Now the Rockies’ ace has a seemingly much easier task tonight. The Diamondbacks have really struggled to score, averaging only 8 runs in their first 4 games. Colorado’s bats looked comfortable against the elite pitching of LAD, so I have to figure they’ll feel just fine and dandy going up against Luke Weaver. Weaver has been one of the worst pitchers in the NL’s West Division. In 2020, Weaver posted a 4.67 FIP, a .349 batting average on balls in play, and allowed 1.73 homeruns per 9 innings according to Fangraphs. Not great. And I think it’ll be worse against a Colorado team that’s very comfortable smacking the wood at home. This game will be cold and crappy but I still think the balls will fly at Coors– advantage, Rockies.
