Well it’s the start of the season so we were due an overall losing day. Still not a bad deal last night at 2-3 and we’re still way above .500 at 11-7 thus far. I’ll keep tracking and keeping myself honest, but as I knock on wood repeatedly typing this, I must say I do love today’s card. (shutters) Let’s get some WINS!
Reds -1.5 (-110), 2 units: This is about as good as a setup as it gets for the Reds. Cincinnati ace Luis Castillo is no doubt anticipating his second start of the year after a poor performance in his first outing. Castillo allowed a whopping 10 runs, 8 hits and 2 walks over just over 3 innings in a loss to the Cardinals last Thursday. Shockingly, somehow he didn’t even manage a strikeout. Don’t be deterred by that performance. Castillo still has elite command and velocity and his stats have only improved over the years (FIP, homers allowed, strikeouts per 9 innings, etc.). He’s also kind of notorious for having games like that here and there. He’ll have a much better day today against a Pittsburgh lineup that can’t find any offense (the Pirates only have 8 runs in the last 4 games, which not surprisingly led to losses). Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh’s starters today, is the opposite of Castillo. Kuhl has the tall task of leading the 1-4 Pirates today and his command is on the decline. In virtually every category, Kuhl has gotten worse. Here are all the categories that he’s devolved in: xERA, FIP, four-seam fastball velocity, homeruns per 9 innings, left on base percentage, and homerun/fly ball ratio. Yikes. I don’t trust him. I do trust a Cincinnati squad who’s bats are getting hotter and even more so with an ace who needs some redemption. The Reds are one of my favorite plays today.
Braves win whatever game is Fried vs. Fedde (-175), 2 units: Atlanta has a double-header today against the Nats and, to put it lightly, they really need a win. ESPN has Game 1 listed at 12:05pm. Other sites say this pitching matchup is in the 4:05 slot, so just make sure that you’re betting on Fried vs. Fedde. Four-year pitcher Max Fried starts today for the Braves and I trust him way more than Erick Fedde. Like our previous analysis on Castillo, Fried has only improved over the years. He doesn’t have the strongest arm but his command is consistent and lethal. Allowing only 0.32 home runs over every 9 innings and earning a 7-0 record in 2020, Atlanta’s ace is tried and true and very capable of stifling the Nationals today in DC. Erick Fedde– eh. Fedde played 11 games in 2020 but that’s a decent enough sample size to see how far his performance has dipped. He’s allowing a ton of homeruns (1.79 per 9 innings) and although his ERA is decent at 4.29, his 2020 FIP was an awful 6.15. Remember, FIP is a better indicator of what a pitcher can do– it only encompasses what’s under their control– and that’s not a good look for the 4 year starter. Atlanta’s bats need to take advantage and I believe they will. They almost eked out a win yesterday (they really should have; they dominated much of that game). Bet ATL.
Rays/Red Sox under 9 runs (-115), 1.5 units: Ryan Yarborough gets the start today for the Rays, while the Red Sox send out Nathan Eovaldi for his second stint. We all know how it went last week for the Sox; they looked just as pedestrian as they did in 2020. Fortunately, the Red Sox have managed a few wins against the Rays. Tampa Bay is up and down, as usual, but I like their chances better today with Yarborough at the mound. I like the under even more. Both of these pitchers put out good performances in their first games. Eovaldi can’t be blamed for Boston’s loss last week. He had 4 strikeouts and held Baltimore to only 1 run in 5 innings, holding an ERA of 1.69 and a FIP of 2.33. Pretty damn solid. Yarborough is in the same boat. He held the Marlins to 5.2 scoreless innings and allowed only 4 hits. Both Eovaldi and Yarborough should be more than capable of holding the others’ bats at bay, even if the Red Sox offense has improved in their last 2 games against the Rays. As long as the bullpens don’t blow this spot, I’m on the under.
Blue Jays -1.5 (-125), 1.5 units: We saw 4 different pitchers come out yesterday for Toronto in a loss so I hope their bullpen isn’t too exhausted, but I trust Ryu to lead the Blue Jays to another win here Wednesday. Ryu did well is his first start last week against the Yankees, although he did surrender a 2-run homer in the 2nd inning. But that was about all he surrendered. Through 4 hits and 5 innings, Ryu looked comfortable and held a solid command, even after that mounted pressure from the homerun. Kyle Gibson, on the other hand, had a forgettable 2021 debut. The 33 year old didn’t look ready; he allowed 5 runs off 4 hits and led to a quick exit from the mound in the first inning. No doubt the Rangers will be ready to employ their bullpen today if that should happen again, while the Jays can trust Ryu to carry them at least through half the ballgame. Toronto’s bats are certainly due some positive regression after many missed opportunities last night and this feels like the spot to do it. I’ll take Toronto to win by margin.
Upset Watch, Orioles win (+150): This isn’t an official play but I’ll look to play on the O’s in a live wager and might sprinkle some money-line action before the first pitch. Jameson Taillon makes his debut start for the Yankees and it’s really hard not to cheer for the kid. After suffering through and beating cancer and then enduring a season-ending Tommy Johns surgery, the 29 year old makes his first appearance today for New York and looks to avenge his career. Once thought of as the future of pitching in Pittsburgh, the setbacks he’s faced and the opportunity he’s been given by the Yankees are notable. He was signed to supplement an already questionable starting rotation and with a decent ERA averaging around 3.50 over his short career, he could be the steady hand New York needs. John Means makes his second start for the Orioles and things couldn’t have gone better in his 2021 debut. Means only allowed 1 hit over 7 innings and got 5 strikeouts. His 2021 ERA of 0.00 and WHIP of 0.14 indicates as much. The Orioles aggressive bats could overwhelm a weakened Yankee’s pitching lineup. Stay tuned. I think this is the side today.
