Another good day in MLB betting as the O’s win made us more right than wrong in our angles. Way to tease us for 11 innings, Baltimore! Baseball can be really intimidating to bet at the start of the season but it feels like we’re finding an early groove. Winning at a 60% clip so far– I ain’t mad about it. Onto my picks!
Red Sox/Orioles over 9 (-110), 1.5 units: As a resident of Baltimore, I can tell you that fans of this town are supremely excited to have baseball back and at least a few fans in the stands. The Orioles are playing with confidence and at a 4-2 record, early hopes are rising that the O’s may remain a competitive team this year. They faked out fans the same way last year with a good start at the beginning of the season, but I think they can sustain some more success and get another win here today. Though I’d prefer betting the total in this one. Matt Harvey had a decent start to his year last week against the very same Red Sox team he’ll face today, allowing 2 runs in 4.2 innings but commanding a 2.17 overall FIP. The 6’4″ starter has real struggles with maintaining command throughout the year so let’s see if he can take advantage of a Red Sox team that’s starting to find their bats. Might be easier said than done. After injury setbacks in 2020, Eduardo Rodriguez will get his first start today since 2019 for Boston and the 28 year old leftie has been nothing but consistent in his short MLB career. Posting an ERA and FIP right around 3.75 throughout his tenure, Rodriguez is a solid but hittable pitcher, still allowing over 1 homerun per 9 innings and an increasing batting average on balls in play. Red Sox writers report that Rodriguez will be on a low pitch count today. Excited to be back at Camden Yards, I think the O’s attack Rodriguez upon his return and Boston should have equal success against Harvey, who will regress as the season trudges on. Give me the over.
D-Backs/Rockies over 11 (-115), 2 units: Whenever I type out D-Backs I hear D-Bags in my head. Sorry Arizona. Anyway, this is a good setup for another over angle at Coors Field. It’ll be a lovely 70 degrees at first pitch in Denver and it’s time for those Diamondbacks to see a little positive regression on offense against a very hittable pitcher. Jon Gray has had his moments of great command for Colorado, but in recent history his numbers have been on a real slide. His FIP has steadily increased (in case you don’t realize, that’s not a good thing) throughout the years, up to a gross 5.06 in 2020 over 8 games. He’s allowed more homeruns per 9 innings than he ever has and his velocity hit its lowest mark in 2020, too. The Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly. The 32 year old right-hander had a tough first start in his opener against the Padres last Friday, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 4 innings. Kelly’s stats have seen slight improvements over his 6 year career but the Rockies’ bats have looked comfortable and able at home, scoring 8 runs in each game of the series thus far. In the first game between these two programs, Arizona lit up the scoreboard with 10 runs over 13 innings and the total hit 18. I expect to see a game more like that today. Give me the over.
Brewers win (-138), 2 units: This is a fade on Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has had a long and mostly successful career as a Cardinals pitcher. The 39 year old 3x All-Star nicknamed “Uncle Charlie” won’t go out without a fight, but his opener against the the Reds last week, a team not-so-notorious for their big bats, is not a good sign for 2021. Wainwright allowed 6 runs on 7 hits and was quickly removed after just 2.2 innings of work. While some may see the 6’7″ veteran as a positive regression candidate, I think he’s a prime fade candidate throughout 2021. His ERA and FIP have devolved considerably over the years and his command and velocity aren’t what they used to be. Milwaukee, who will start the serviceable and improving 26 year old Corbin Burnes at the mound today, have more than enough power behind their bats to give Wainwright trouble this afternoon. Each of these teams are riding winning streaks into this contest and it’s hard not to be impressed by the series sweep St. Louis had over a Miami team entering the season with a ton of hype. Still, I think this is a great spot for the Brewers to take advantage. I’m on Milwaukee. PS: the total is set at 7.5 and it’s kinda sneaky– might hammer the over, too.
