Even after a few bad beats yesterday (are you kidding me, Diamondbacks?), we’re still 15-11 (58%) and shit, it’s Friday. Let’s go!
Blue Jays win (EVEN), 1 unit: The Angels are playing some good baseball right now. They have underrated pitching, a deep roster and plenty of big bats to keep pace if and when the scoreboard blows up. They’re also the only team that’s bested the Astros to this point, which I think means more than pundits think. Toronto, on the other hand, could use a win. The Blue Jays have now lost 3 straight, 2 of those losses to the hapless Rangers, and they’re having real trouble scoring. T.J Zeuch takes the mound for the Blue Jays today and his first start was a good one, allowing only 4 hits and 1 walk in four scoreless innings of pitching. And that was against a Yankees squad in a good spot. Zeuch is a good back-up and filler while the Jays nurse Robbie Ray back into the lineup. If his velocity and command continue to look like his first showing, he may be a bigger part of the Jays’ rotation in the months to come. The up-and-down Andrew Heaney gets the nod Friday for the halos and his first showing was anything but promising. Of course we all know how well the White Sox do against lefties, but this performance was particularly alarming. Heaney didn’t look ready, allowing 7 runs on 5 hits in just over three innings of play. Yowza. That’ll count as a loss and after a promising 2020, the red flags will start waving if that’s the Heaney we get this year– he looked like the 2016/2017 version, which wasn’t good. Heaney takes chances and Toronto has more than enough power behind their bats to knock a few deep and get some momentum going today at “home” in Florida. I like this spot for the Jays.
Padres (-180), 2.5 units: Joe Musgrove was dominant in his first start for his new squad, posting an electric 0.56 FIP, allowing only 3 hits and 0 runs over six innings and earning 8 strikeouts. The only issue– how impressive was it against a Diamondbacks unit that, we’re learning, is really struggling to produce offense? I guess we’ll see. Texas will bring out Kohei Arihara for his second start in the major leagues. The 28 year old Japanese signing had a fair start to his MLB career, allowing 3 runs over five innings. He’ll be a work in progress as he adapts to the power and pace of American baseball, but based on his performance in the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), he should improve. Arihara has improved his velocity and “had one of the 10-lowest walk rates among qualified starters in NPB four of the last five years,” according to FanGraphs. The bigger issue for the Rangers is their bullpen. Texas has already gotten into real trouble when too dependent on their relief pitchers and if Musgrove unleashes another above-average performance, it’s likely the Rangers will have to play catch-up and may try to throw off the Padres’ bats with new blood at the mound. No matter how this game progresses, I don’t think it spells good news for the home team. I’ll take the Padres on the road.
Astros -1.5 (+105), 2 units: For all the success Sean Manaea has had in recent past, his 2021 season started out rather abysmal. The 6’5″ 29 year old was blitzed by a motivated Astros offense last Sunday, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits in just 4.2 innings, including 2 homers. I don’t see why the same doesn’t happen Friday night. The Astros are feelin’ themselves. Confident on the mound and at bat, the Astros swept the Athletics on Oakland’s home turf in 4 straight games and look to do it again at Minute Maid Park. Lance McCullers gets the start again for Houston and he was very efficient in his first showing last week against Oakland. McCullers is known for a strong arm and he flexed it last Saturday, allowing only one run in 5 innings and accruing a 1.80 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Left on base percentage– 80%. That’s a really good recipe for the Astros again tonight. Even if McCullers allows the Athletics to get on base, and there’s no evidence that Oakland has any momentum to get there, I don’t think they can keep pace while the very hittable Manaea faces off against a bunch of white-hot Astros’ batters. Trust the Astros right now, this heat may eventually wear off. Astros by margin.
