A 2-0 Saturday makes us 3-0 the past 2 days and gives us another winning week betting baseball. Onto Sunday!
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Orioles first 5 (+105), 2 units: Despite the failings of Baltimore in yet another disappointing year for Charm City, they remain one of the best offenses against left handed pitchers. The Orioles are top 5 in many major categories against lefties, including runs, RBIs, and batting average. Today they’ll go up against southpaw Tyler Alexander (4.80 ERA, 4.61 xERA, 1.36 WHIP over 50.2 innings), the 27 year old reliever who’s been getting more chances to start as Detroit looks to build up their rotation in the hope of a late-season surge. Baltimore will start Spenser Watkins (3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 20.1 innings) for the 4th time today. In his last start against the Marlins he allowed a big homerun early, which really was the difference in the game, but we still believe in Spenser. The kid has a dynamic arsenal and generally really impressive command from what we’ve seen so far. I think he can keep the Tigers at bay, and I can’t say I feel the same way about Alexander. This is another spot where Baltimore can thrive. According to Covers.com, the Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-0 against starters in their last 5 with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I’m on the O’s in the first half.
Giants -1.5 (+165), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on the Giants by margin today. San Francisco’s Logan Webb (3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 67 innings) has been getting better as the season goes on, boasting an impressive 3.48 ERA in June over 20.2 innings, followed by an even more impressive July with a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings. He’ll look to continue his success tonight against the visiting Astros. Houston will start Luis Garcia (3.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 96 innings) Sunday, whose profile is devolving a bit, particularly on the road. He owns a 4.58 ERA away from Minute Maid Park and has allowed 12 runs in his last 3 starts on the road. Maybe this is the game where he sees some positive regression but I can’t trust it against the Giants and how they’ve performed recently on offense. Over the past 2 weeks, San Francisco is top 10 in homeruns, slugging percentage, and wOBA. That should only get better with Kris Bryant, who’s primed and no doubt motivated to make his debut today against the villainous Astros. The Giants are 34-17 at home and will be playing in front of a raucous crowd. They’re also 23-6 in their last 29 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous contest. Take the Giants by margin.
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