One game was postponed and the NRFI on Miami/San Diego hit, making us 6-0 the last 3 days and 8-1 the last 4. Let’s keep rollin’!
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Angels/Blue Jays over 7.5 (game 1, -115), 1.5 units: This is one of those abbreviated double-header games but I care not. These two power-hitting offenses only need to average 1 run per inning and, especially with the way the Jays have been slugging, that shouldn’t be a difficult hill to climb. The Angels’ bats have been ice cold the last 2 weeks, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Steve Matz (4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP over 96.1 innings) will give them another challenge today but Matz is too inconsistent to trust. After a needed day off, this is a decent spot for the Angels’ lineup to reawaken. The Angels will send Chris Rodriguez to the mound Tuesday, the 23 year old righty who’s mostly served in a relief role for LAA, and he hasn’t done it very well. Rodriguez had an awful June with an ERA of 9.00 and after some time off, returned to pitch 6 innings against the Rangers last week, permitting 4 runs on 4 hits. The Blue Jays enter Tuesday as one of the hottest offenses in MLB, ranking in the top 5 in nearly every category over the last 14 days. The Jays could eclipse this total alone and if the Angels help them out, this could potentially fly into the double digits. Take the over.
Phillies (+150), 1.5 unit: Let’s take a shot on the red-hot Phillies! Philadelphia has now won 8 games in a row and they’ve eclipsed the Mets for 1st place in the NL East. Led by tremendous performances from Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler, the team from the City of Brotherly Love is laying waste to their rivals in a multitude of ways. According to the Philly Voice, Harper is ranked in the top 5 in the National League in 4 different key categories, including offensive WAR, slugging %, on base %, and runs created. He’s also 7th overall in batting average. He’s been absolutely electric all summer. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler is making a very strong case for the NL Cy Young Award (+200). Wheeler leads the NL in pitching WAR, strikeouts, innings pitched, and complete games. He’s also 7th overall in ERA. Today the home team will start their pre-season ace in Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP over 126.1 innings). Nola’s numbers are down a notch this year but he still has the talent and tools to command against great teams. He had a poor showing last time at the mound against Washington, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings. After bad performances he tends to improve and we’re counting on his positive regression in this contest.
Enter the reigning champions. The LA Dodgers travel to Philadelphia Tuesday fresh off a series win against their in-city foe. The Dodgers are now 4 games behind the Giants and passing them won’t be easy to do any time soon– San Francisco travels to Arizona and should be able to stack up more wins over the next few days. Max Scherzer (2.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP over 118 innings) looked really solid in his debut with the Dodgers, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. The 37 year old can still go the distance but a subpar HR allowance (1.45/9 innings) could mean trouble tonight in Philly. It’s difficult projecting negative regression with Scherzer, but this is a nerve-racking spot in front of an excited crowd and the man is on the latter end of his career. I’m betting on offense in this one and right now that means I see value in the Phillies. At home and defending a winning streak against last year’s World Series’ Champions? I reckon they’ll will be quite motivated, too. Take Philly.
